Sabtu, 25 Desember 2010

Week Sixteen Picks


Also like:

CHIEFS -5 over Titans
RAMS -2 over Niners
Texans -2.5 over BRONCOS
Cowboys -7 over CARDINALS
Colts -2 over RAIDERS

If forced to choose:

Ravens -3.5 over BROWNS
BENGALS +7.5 over Chargers
STEELERS -14 over Panthers $
Redskins +7 over JAGUARS
Jets +2.5 over BEARS
BILLS +7.5 over Patriots
DOLPHINS -3.5 over Lions
PACKERS -3 over Giants
Saints +2 over FALCONS
Seahawks +6 over BUCS
Vikings +14.5 over EAGLES


Lock season record: 1-0
Really like season record: 2-1
Also like season record: 34-22-1
If forced to choose season record: 79-77-2
All games season record: 116-100-3

Kamis, 23 Desember 2010

Week Sixteen Power Rankings


32. Arizona (32)
31. Carolina (31)
30. Denver (30)
29. Cincinnati (29)
28. Minnesota (21)
27. Seattle (27)
26. San Francisco (26)

25. Washington (23)

24. Buffalo (28)
23. St. Louis (25)

22. Detroit (24)

21. Cleveland (20)

20. Tennessee (22)
19. Tampa Bay (17)
18. Houston (18)

17. Oakland (19)

16. Dallas (16)

15. Jacksonville (15)
14. Miami (14)
13. Kansas City (13)

12. Chicago (12)

11. Indianapolis (11)
10. New York Jets (9)

9. San Diego (10)
8. New York Giants (6)

7. New Orleans (5)

6. Baltimore (8)
5. Green Bay (7)

4. Atlanta (4)
3. Pittsburgh (3)

2. Philadelphia (2)

1. New England (1)

Selasa, 21 Desember 2010

My 100 Favorite Songs: #7

Wolf Parade - I'll Believe In Anything



Melodic chaos boils to a staggering crescendo.

Sabtu, 18 Desember 2010

Week Fifteen Power Rankings & Picks




Power Rankings

32. Carolina (31)

31. Arizona (32)

30. Denver (29)

29. Cincinnati (30)
28. Buffalo (27)

27. Seattle (26)

26. San Francisco (28)

25. St. Louis (22)

24. Detroit (23)
23. Washington (24)
22. Tennessee (25)

21. Minnesota (17)

20. Cleveland (16)

19. Oakland (21)

18. Houston (20)

17. Tampa Bay (19)
16. Dallas (18)
15. Jacksonville (15)
14. Miami (14)

13. Kansas City (13)

12. Chicago (11)

11. Indianapolis (12)

10. San Diego (10)
9. New York Jets (9)

8. Baltimore (4)
7. Green Bay (3)

6. New York Giants (8)

5. New Orleans (7)
4. Atlanta (6)

3. Pittsburgh (5)

2. Philadelphia (1)

1. New England (2)



Week Fifteen Picks:




Also like:

VIKINGS +6 or more over Bears
RAVENS -1.5 over Saints
PANTHERS -2.5 over Cardinals

If forced to choose:

COWBOYS -7 over Redskins
Chiefs +2 over RAMS
CHARGERS -9.5 over Niners $
Eagles +3 over GIANTS
Lions +5.5 over BUCS
Browns +1 over BENGALS
Texans +1.5 over TITANS
Broncos +7 over RAIDERS
SEAHAWKS +6 over Falcons
Bills +5.5 over DOLPHINS
PATRIOTS -14 over Packers
Jets +5.5 over STEELERS
COLTS -4.5 over Jaguars

Lock season record: 1-0
Really like season record: 2-1
Also like season record: 32-22-1
If forced to choose season record: 72-71-2
All games season record: 107-94-3

Rabu, 15 Desember 2010

Top Ten Months


10. August
9. July
8. December
7. November
6. March
5. October
4. April
3. June
2. September
1. May

Kamis, 09 Desember 2010

The NFL's Least Important Position




Wide receiver is the most fascinating position in football because it is populated by the best athletes in the game – and in truth, the world – yet there is no standard position on the field that carries less importance. The value of wide receivers has been proven to be minimal. Instances in which the departure of a WR has done significant damage to his team’s passing game are difficult to recall – Plaxico Burress with the 2008 Giants is the only notable one over the last several seasons. But over and over again we see little damage done when a big-name WR leaves his team via retirement, free agency, trade, or injury.

The thing about wide receivers is that because of the way football is structured, their success is dependent on the play of their quarterback and offensive line. Wide receivers need an intelligent, accurate passer as well as linemen that give that passer time to get the ball to them. If any of these positions don’t do their job, wide receivers will not get a chance to make a play. Every position in football is synergistic, but none quite so dependent as the wide receiver.


Another interesting aspect of the WR is that he is the player on the team most likely to draw headlines for boorish, malcontented behavior. Why is this? One theory is that throughout his life, the WR has been the best athlete around. Nobody can run as fast or jump as high as him. But now he is in the NFL, and he might only touch the ball five times a game – if he’s one of the best. Time after time he busts his ass sprinting down the field and then running back to the huddle without seeing a ball or camera pointed in his direction. He will be invisible on 90% of the plays, yet he has to expend maximum effort on most of them. He risks his neck routinely, performing the most delicate and skillful actions on the field all while a 240 lb speeding bullet is headed straight toward his head intent on smashing into him with as much force as possible. And the WR may begin to realize that everything he does really doesn’t matter that much, certainly not as much as what his quarterback and left tackle are doing behind him.


Finally, the WR is the most easily replaceable of all NFL players. There is always someone lurking on the waiver wire or unemployment line ready to step in and play as well as the man he is brought in to replace.


The irrelevance of the WR has been illuminated this season by a variety of players in a variety of different situations. Consider these case studies:


Mark Clayton, St. Louis

Baltimore, who brought in big-name WRs Anquan Boldin and TJ Houshmandzadeh in the offseason, traded Clayton to the Rams for peanuts right before the season. Clayton practiced with the Rams for less than a week and then caught ten passes for 119 yards in their first game. He snagged two TDs the next week and posted solid production the next two before going down with a season-ending injury in week five. What happened to the Rams passing offense – which had already suffered injuries to #1 WR Donnie Avery and #2 Laurent Robinson as well as some of their backups – after Clayton went down? It got better. Sam Bradford has posted a higher passer rating in five of the last six games than in any of the games he played with Clayton. Meanwhile, Boldin (who was an absolute monster in the games he played for his former team, Arizona) and Houshmandzadeh have posted Clayton-like numbers in Baltimore. Bradford’s numbers confirm two things – 1) it doesn’t matter who your WRs are if you have a competent quarterback driving the car and 2) Sam Bradford is going to be one hell of an NFL quarterback.


Dez Bryant, Dallas

The Cowboys were one of the best teams in the league last season. Their first draft pick this year was the prodigiously talented Dez Bryant, a physical freak who looked like a beast amongst boys in college and still looks like a man amongst boys in the pros. Bryant is a contender for Rookie of the Year, yet Dallas has slipped from contender to a 4-8 mess. Wide receiver doesn’t matter – the ‘Boys have lost eight games because their defensive players decided to suck, a few of their offensive linemen were injured, and they quit on their coach.


Dwayne Bowe, Kansas City

Eight weeks ago Dwayne Bowe dropped a touchdown pass against the Colts that cost 1) the team a chance to win the game 2) gamblers who took the Chiefs and the points a devastating loss vs the spread 3) hundreds of thousands of fantasy owners a critical touchdown. Bowe then dropped an easy ball on the very next pass. He was vilified throughout the next week by the fans, chastised by the media, and left for dead by fantasy owners. After that Colts game Bowe’s season totals were, in four games as Kansas City’s #1 WR, 9 catches for 98 yards and one touchdown.

Bowe has been on an incredible tear ever since, one of the greatest stretches a wide receiver has ever had. Bowe scored thirteen touchdowns in his next seven games and is now the #2 WR of the 2010 fantasy football season. What the hell happened?

Dwayne Bowe didn’t stop dropping passes. He even dropped a couple during his 13-catch, 170-yard, 3-TD performance last week in Seattle. What happened was Bowe’s team started playing some tougher competition, got behind more often, had to throw, modified their offensive philosophy, and called his number quite a bit more than they had during the first four games. Bowe was never one of the league’s best #1 WRs or one of its worst; his numbers, like those of all wide receivers, are situationally dependent.


Brandon Marshall, Miami

Few players in the NFL are as obviously gifted as Marshall, a physical freak who put up some of the biggest numbers in the league his last three seasons in Denver. But Josh McDaniels and the Broncos grew tired of his antics and shipped him to Miami for a couple 2nd-round draft picks. McDaniels has made a number of well-publicized personnel gaffes, but trading Marshall for two 2nd-rounders is his highlight. Because wide receiver doesn’t matter, and the Broncos have gotten a stunning Pro-Bowl season from journeyman Brandon Lloyd in Marshall’s absence. The Dolphins, grinders of the NFL, have been desperate for a big-play WR for years. Marshall came riding in on a golden horse, but for all his talent, he has scored just one touchdown this season. The Dolphins offense looks no different than it did the last two seasons. The Broncos have continued to get great production from their WRs…yet Denver is still one of the worst teams in the league. Because wide receiver doesn’t matter.



Terrell Owens, Cincinnati

T.O., who turned 37 on Tuesday, is quietly having a nice season. Owens is third in the league in receiving yards. Yet by all accounts, Chad Ochocinco is the most potent Cincinnati wide receiver and T.O.’s sterling numbers are a direct result of opposing defenses rolling defenses in 85’s direction. T.O.’s big numbers have come from his limited coverage along with the 2-10 Bengals constantly trying to rally from big deficits.


Vincent Jackson, San Diego

Jackson went for 2,265 yards and 16 touchdowns over the last two seasons, so he decided to hold out for big money this year. The Chargers laughed and told him to go fuck himself. Then Legedu Naanee got hurt. Then Buster Davis went down for the season. Then Malcom Floyd went out. Then Antonio Gates got banged up. Then Patrick Crayton was lost for the season. And somehow the Chargers have actually gotten steadily better throughout the season. Philip Rivers has made a mockery of the wide receiver position, proving that it does not matter who runs routes for him. Rivers is the one with the power. Vincent Jackson can thank Rivers for making him a big name and he can thank Rivers for demonstrating that he is no more valuable than Seyi Ajirotutu.


Deion Branch, New England

Branch was the MVP of Super Bowl XXXIX, which of course should never happen since wide receiver doesn’t matter. He followed that performance up with a nice 2005 campaign in which he caught 78 balls for 998 yards, then held out of training camp demanding more money. The Patriots laughed, traded Branch to the Seahawks for a 1st round draft pick, laughed again, watched him put up very pedestrian numbers in Seattle for four and a half seasons, chuckled demeaningly, traded Seattle a 4th round draft pick to get him back, then guffawed uproariously – especially after Branch went off for 9 catches, 98 yards, and a TD in his first game back with the Pats. During Bill Belichick’s tenure, the Patriots have never spent a 1st round draft pick on a wide receiver. During Matt Millen’s tenure as GM of the Lions, Detroit spent four 1st round draft picks on wide receivers. Millen’s eight-year tenure with the Lions coincided with the worst eight-year record in NFL history.


Randy Moss, New England/Minnesota/Tennessee

The story of Randy’s career, and its 2010 microcosm, should be the subject of a much greater piece. Few football players have ever exhibited as much overwhelming talent as Moss. Few have been as explosive, and none have ever caught as many touchdowns in one season as Moss did in 2007. But it should be noted that season came when Moss was aligned with an All-Pro quarterback and left tackle.

2010 record for the three teams Moss has played for while Moss has been on the team: 4-9

2010 record for the three teams Moss has played for without Moss: 16-8


The Wide Receiver Rankings


102. Chansi Stuckey
101. Brian Robiskie
100. Ted Ginn
99. Buster Davis

98. Blair White
97. Greg Camarillo
96. Early Doucet
95. Brian Hartline

94. Roy Williams

93. Jordy Nelson
92. Sammie Stroughter
91. Jordan Shipley
90. Greg Lewis

89. Patrick Crayton
88. Brian Finneran
87. Emmanuel Sanders
86. Darrius Heyward-Bey

85. Kevin Walter
84. Terrance Copper

83. Jacoby Jones
82. Roscoe Parrish
81. Laveranues Coles
80. Antwaan Randle El
79. Brandon Stokley

78. David Anderson
77. James Jones
76. Brandon Gibson

75. Nate Washington
74. Julian Edelman

73. Justin Gage

72. Earl Bennett
71. Devery Henderson
70. Mohamed Massaquoi
69. Deon Butler
68. Nate Burleson
67. T.J. Houshmandzadeh
66. Josh Morgan

65. Anthony Armstrong
64. Harry Douglas
63. Brad Smith

62. Pierre Garcon
61. Deion Branch
60. Jacoby Ford
59. Devin Hester
58. Louis Murphy

57. Austin Collie

56. Jason Avant

55. Randy Moss

54. Mike Thomas

53. Johnny Knox
52. Lance Moore

51. Mike Sims-Walker
50. Michael Jenkins
49. Steve Johnson
48. Braylon Edwards
47. Bernard Berrian
46. Malcom Floyd
45. Jabar Gaffney
44. Robert Meachem
43. Vincent Jackson
42. Mark Clayton
41. Jerricho Cotchery
40. Legedu Naanee
39. Danny Amendola
38. Donnie Avery
37. Steve Breaston
36. Davone Bess
35. Eddie Royal
24. Terrell Owens

34. Mario Manningham

33. Santana Moss

32. Derrick Mason
31. Mike Williams (Seattle)
30. Chad Ochocinco

29. Jeremy Maclin

28. Kenny Britt

27. Percy Harvin
26. Michael Crabtree
25. Wes Welker
24. Brandon Lloyd
23. Lee Evans

22. Steve Smith (Giants)

21. Mike Williams (Tampa Bay)

20. Dez Bryant

19. Sidney Rice
18. Marques Colston
17. Hines Ward
16. Donald Driver
15. Steve Smith (Panthers)
14.. Santonio Holmes
13. Dwayne Bowe
12. Mike Wallace

11. Reggie Wayne

10. Miles Austin

9. Hakeem Nicks

8. DeSean Jackson

7. Greg Jennings

6. Anquan Boldin
5. Brandon Marshall
4. Roddy White
3. Calvin Johnson

2. Andre Johnson
1. Larry Fitzgerald



Week Fourteen Picks



Also like:

REDSKINS +2 over Bucs
Browns +1 over BILLS
Seahawks +5.5 over NINERS
Bengals +8.5 over STEELERS
Patriots -3 over BEARS
Ravens -3 over TEXANS
Dolphins +5.5 over JETS

If forced to choose:

Colts -3.5 over TITANS X
Falcons -7.5 over PANTHERS
Packers -6.5 over LIONS
Raiders +4.5 over JAGUARS
Broncos -5.5 over CARDINALS
Eagles -3.5 over COWBOYS
Giants -2.5 over VIKINGS
Rams +9.5 over SAINTS

Lock season record: 1-0
Really like season record: 2-1
Also like season record: 28-19-1
If forced to choose season record: 71-65-2
All games season record: 102-85-3

Rabu, 08 Desember 2010

Week Fourteen Power Rankings


32. Arizona (31)
31. Carolina (32)
30. Cincinnati (30)
29. Denver (29)
28. San Francisco (28)

27. Buffalo (26)
26. Seattle (27)

25. Tennessee (19)
24. Washington (20)
23. Detroit (24)
22. St. Louis (25)

21. Oakland (21)
20. Houston (18)

19. Tampa Bay (16)
18. Dallas (23)
17. Minnesota (22)

16. Cleveland (15)

15. Jacksonville (17)
14. Miami (14)

13. Kansas City (11)
12. Indianapolis (9)
11. Chicago (13)

10. San Diego (7)
9. New York Jets (10)

8. New York Giants (12)
7. New Orleans (8)
6. Atlanta (6)

5. Pittsburgh (5)

4. Baltimore (4)

3. Green Bay (3)

2. New England (2)

1. Philadelphia (1)

Senin, 06 Desember 2010

November Top 15


15. Ween - Buckingham Green
14. Robyn & Snoop Dogg - U Should Know Better
13. A.J. Roach - Temporary
12. Love - A House Is Not A Motel
11. Ween - Pink Eye (On My Leg)

10. Death Cab For Cutie - Your New Twin Sized Bed
9. Ween - Waving My Dick In The Wind
8. Ricky Lee Jones - The Horses
7. Ween - The Blarney Stone
6. Morcheeba - Rome Wasn't Built In A Day

5. Love - Alone Again Or
4. Ween - Cold Blows The Wind
3. Ween - The Golden Eel
2. Bruce Springsteen - Badlands

Song of the Month: Ween - It's Gonna Be (Alright)

Sabtu, 04 Desember 2010

Week Thirteen Picks


Also like:

Redskins +7 over GIANTS
BENGALS +6.5 over Saints
PATRIOTS -3.5 over Jets

If forced to choose:

Texans +8 over EAGLES X
Bills +5.5 over VIKINGS
Broncos +9.5 over CHIEFS
Steelers +3 over RAVENS
Jaguars +3 over TITANS
Falcons -3 over BUCS
LIONS +4.5 over Bears
PACKERS -9.5 over Niners
COLTS -5 over Cowboys
Panthers +5 over SEAHAWKS
Raiders +13 over CHARGERS
Rams -3.5 over CARDINALS
DOLPHINS -5 over Browns


Lock season record: 1-0
Really like season record: 2-1
Also like season record: 26-18-1
If forced to choose season record: 63-60-2
All games season record: 92-79-3

Selasa, 30 November 2010

Too Much Of A Good Thing

I am extremely fortunate. I don’t have to work hard if I don’t want to, at least not right now. I have never worked hard at things in which I wasn’t overflowing with passion, not in school and not since. I am aware that this lazy approach may come back to haunt me down the road, but I usually choose a path with less (though not least) resistance.

I have gone overboard with it recently. Two things I am passionate about, football and board games, have been too dominant. Football is awesome of course, the greatest sport there has ever been, the ultimate combination of strategy and athleticism. But it’s not my job, it probably can never be my job, and it doesn’t have enough redeeming value for how many hours it has been consuming. Less can be more with football – I can still enjoy the games, probably even more so, without watching every play of every game, followed by re-watching every play of every game on DirecTV’s Short Cuts every week.

The board games du jour are Agricola and Dominion. These games are about efficiency - ironically for me, about maximizing limited time and resources. The great thing about both games is that each individual game you play is different. Each iteration requires a different path for optimization. After a few trials of Dominion I thought I had it figured out, but I had only discovered the most basic strategy. After a couple eye-opening beatings at the hands of different opponents, I realized there is no one way to consistently win at the game. The best players adapt to each permutation and are constantly formulating original strategy.


I started thinking about poker. I have not been open-minded enough with my approach to tournament poker. At some point I became convinced that playing a small-ball, flat-calling, trapping style was both THE right way to play as well as my own preferred style.

But the best don’t just play one way, they are constantly adapting their game to the infinite permutations of poker. I remember this David Singer interview on one of the infinite permutations of PokerRoad Radio where he was talking about the heads up tournament he had just won. He referenced Bruce Lee talking about water.



I was way behind watching the 2010 WSOP, so I went on a binge the week before the November Nine reconvened. I thought this might have been the most entertaining WSOP ESPN has broadcast since the monumental Moneymaker 2003 lipstick camera premiere. ESPN expanded the coverage quite a bit this year, so you really got a feel for how the tournament played out in its latter stages, how chip leads were obtained and lost, how each of the November Nine navigated his way to the final.

The most striking thing about the coverage was the overall quality of play. In the past there have always been meltdowns, blowups, glaring mistakes, and other sorts of buffoonery. This year ESPN struggled to find anything of the sort. Jonathan Duhamel’s infamous suckout on Matt Affleck was the most controversial hand of the tournament; it was a questionably played hand but nothing horrific. Soi Nguyen was the chosen “rank amateur” they focused on, but he obviously knew what he was doing. He went with top pair against Theo Jorgensen’s nut flush draw in a spot where most pros would probably “look for a better spot.” Those two hands, standard just a couple years ago, were the closest thing to mistakes I can remember watching over the last several episodes of coverage.

The last four tables of the main event were loaded with tough pros. Looking at the results it's staggering how many known players got so deep in this event.

As usual, I knew some of the players skilled and fortunate enough to contend for the title. I have played multiple times with many of these guys, as have most of the circuit regulars. Hasan Habib was one of the first “famous” pros I ever met: he stunned me at Foxwoods by offering a percentage swap after playing on my left for a few hours in a 2005 WPT. Ronnie Bardah was there from the beginning, though I struggle to recall any specific memories. Anyone who has logged some time in the higher stakes online MTTs has run across Bryn Kenny. Anyone who has logged some time playing the live MTTs has run across David Baker, Scott Clements, and John Racener. Adam Levy is one of the most popular players in tournament poker – he knows everyone. I played with him in his first big buy-in way back in December 2005 at the Bellagio, and he has been nice to me ever since.

Duy Le was one of my most common, maybe even the most common, opponent when I played $10-20 NL on Bodog in ’07 and ’08. Duy was always strong competition, and we wound up chatting some on AIM. He was the one I was rooting for as the tournament wound down and the pressure ratcheted up.

I started making a list of “The Twenty Players Most Likely To Win The Main Event” in 2007. 2010 was the first year I left Michael Mizrachi off the list, mostly because I played with him in a SCOOP 4-max tournament in which he was outplayed by the respected online player cdbr. Interestingly enough, ESPN showed some table chatter late in the Main Event where the Grinder was joking about his poor, distracted play online. I have written on this blog that the Grinder is the greatest player I have ever played against. His camouflage of hands is unmatched. You never have a clue what he has. Though the rest of the world has made up some ground, the Grinder proved this year that he is still one of the game’s top players.

The final table was the toughest in the history of the Main Event. Mizrachi was the big-name pro, but he seemed like just another player at that table. Eight pros and an amateur. There are so many pros now. The pros are so much better than they were even two years ago. Weaknesses, though they still exist, are so minute compared to what they used to be. Going in I predicted – based on chip position and their general ability to accumulate chips just a little more forcefully than some of their counterparts – that Joseph Cheong or John Dolan would emerge as the champion.

Momentum was with Cheong after Dolan paid him off on the river in one of those “I know he knows what I have” situations, and stayed with him until the largest pot in the history of the WSOP. I thought it was fitting that this great tournament came down to eight young pros, that its deciding hand was a six-bet bluff, that Racener came in second, that it was won by an aggressive 23-year old Canadian pro.

I have been playing very little poker, even for me, over the last few months. Football has been more compelling. But I did play a few of the FTOPS, as well as a couple heads-up tournaments. I feel great about my game, even if the universe has become harder to navigate. These board games have widened my eyes. I am closer to a liquid state.

Kamis, 25 November 2010

Week Twelve NFL Feast


Power Rankings


32. Carolina (32)
31. Arizona (31)
30. Denver (29)
29. Buffalo (30)

28. San Francisco (25)
27. St. Louis (28)
26. Seattle (27)
25. Cincinnati (20)
24. Detroit (24)
23. Minnesota (19)

22. Dallas (26)
21. Washington (21)
20. Oakland (17)

19. Houston (18)
18. Jacksonville (22)
17. Tampa Bay (23)
16. Tennessee (11)
15. Miami (13)
14. Cleveland (15)

13. Chicago (16)

12. Kansas City (13)
11. New York Giants (2)
10. San Diego (12)

9. New York Jets (7)
8. New Orleans (10)

7. Atlanta (8)
6. Pittsburgh (6)
5. New England (5)
4. Baltimore (4)

3. Green Bay (9)

2. Indianapolis (2)

1. Philadelphia (1)



Quarterback Rankings



34. Derek Anderson
33. Matt Moore

32. Alex Smith
31. Shaun Hill
30. Matthew Stafford

29. Kerry Collins
28. Ryan Fitzpatrick
27. Brett Favre
26. Jason Campbell

25. Colt McCoy
24. Matt Cassel
23. Chad Henne
22. Sam Bradford
21. Josh Freeman
20. Mark Sanchez

19. Matt Schaub
18. Carson Palmer
17. Vince Young
16. David Garrard

15. Kyle Orton
14. Jay Cutler
13. Joe Flacco
12. Donovan McNabb
11. Matt Hasselbeck
10. Matt Ryan

9. Eli Manning

8. Ben Roethlisberger
7. Tony Romo
6. Michael Vick
5. Aaron Rodgers

4. Tom Brady
3. Drew Brees
2. Philip Rivers
1. Peyton Manning



Head Coach Rankings



31. Mike Singletary
30. Tom Cable
29. Todd Haley
28. Norv Turner
27. Marvin Lewis
26. Jack Del Rio
25. Ken Whisenhunt
24. Lovie Smith
23. Raheem Morris
22. Eric Mangini
21. Pete Carroll
20. Jason Garrett
19. Josh McDaniels
18. Chan Gailey
17. Jim Caldwell
16. John Fox
15. Mike McCarthy
14. Mike Shanahan
13. Mike Tomlin
12. Gary Kubiak
11. Andy Reid
10. Jim Schwartz
9. Tom Coughlin
8. Rex Ryan
7. Jeff Fisher
6. Steve Spagnuolo
5. Mike "Old Whitey" Smith
4. Tony Sparano
3. John Harbaugh
2. Sean Payton
1. Bill Belichick



Week Twelve Picks


Also like:

COLTS -3 over Chargers
Chiefs -1 over SEAHAWKS

If forced to choose:

Eagles -3.5 over BEARS
Jaguars +7 over GIANTS
LIONS +6.5 over Patriots
Dolphins +3 over RAIDERS
Rams +4 over BRONCOS
BILLS +6 over Steelers
TEXANS -6.5 over Titans
RAVENS -7.5 over Bucs
Niners -1 over CARDINALS
Saints -3.5 over COWBOYS
REDSKINS -1.5 over Vikings
Packers +1.5 over FALCONS
Panthers +10 over BROWNS
Bengals +9 over JETS

Lock season record: 1-0
Really like season record: 2-1
Also like season record: 25-17-1
If forced to choose season record: 56-53-2
All games season record: 84-71-3

Senin, 22 November 2010

My 100 Favorite Songs: #8

Thelma Houston - Don't Leave Me This Way



Normally I think musical taste is a matter of opinion, not fact - but this is unquestionably the greatest disco song ever, and that cannot be argued.

Kamis, 18 November 2010

Week Eleven Power Rankings & Picks



Power Rankings

32. Carolina (32)
31. Arizona (31)
30. Buffalo (29)
29. Denver (28)
28. St. Louis (25)
27. Seattle (26)

26. Dallas (30)

25. San Francisco (27)

24. Detroit (20)

23. Tampa Bay (24)
22. Jacksonville (23)
21. Washington (21)
20. Cincinnati (22)
19. Minnesota (15)

18. Houston (17)

17. Oakland (18)

16. Chicago (19)

15. Cleveland (16)

14. Kansas City (12)
13. Miami (13)

12. San Diego (14)

11. Tennessee (8)

10. New Orleans (10)
9. Green Bay (11)
8. Atlanta (9)

7. New York Jets (7)
6. Pittsburgh (2)

5. New England (5)

4. Baltimore (4)
3. Indianapolis (3)
2. New York Giants (1)
1. Philadelphia (6)


Week Eleven Picks



Also like:

DOLPHINS -2 over Bears
Falcons -3 over RAMS
CHIEFS -8 over Cardinals
Ravens -10 over PANTHERS
NINERS -3.5 over Bucs

If forced to choose:

VIKINGS +3 over Packers
BENGALS -5.5 over Bills
CHARGERS -10 over Broncos
Lions +6.5 over COWBOYS
Texans +7 over JETS
SAINTS -12 over Seahawks
JAGUARS -1.5 over Browns
Colts +3.5 over PATRIOTS
Raiders +7.5 over STEELERS
EAGLES -3.5 over Giants
Redskins +7 over TITANS


Lock season record: 1-0
Really like season record: 2-1
Also like season record: 22-15-1
If forced to choose season record: 49-49-2
All games season record: 74-65-4

Rabu, 17 November 2010

My 100 Favorite Songs: #9

AC/DC - It's A Long Way To The Top (If You Wanna Rock 'N' Roll)



The first song on AC/DC's first album, It's A Long Way To The Top is pure relentlessness.

Sabtu, 13 November 2010

Week Ten Power Rankings & Picks




Power Rankings

32. Carolina (31)
31. Arizona (32)
30. Dallas (25)
29. Buffalo (30)
28. Denver (29)

27. San Francisco (28)

26. Seattle (23)
25. St. Louis (27)

24. Tampa Bay (26)
23. Jacksonville (24)
22. Cincinnati (19)
21. Washington (18)

20. Detroit (21)

19. Chicago (17)

18. Oakland (20)

17. Houston (16)
16. Cleveland (22)

15. Minnesota (15)
14. San Diego (14)
13. Miami (11)
12. Kansas City (13)

11. Green Bay (11)
10. New Orleans (10)
9. Atlanta (9)

8. Tennessee (8)

7. New York Jets (6)

6. Philadelphia (7)

5. New England (5)

4. Baltimore (3)
3. Indianapolis (2)
2. Pittsburgh (1)

1. New York Giants (4)


Week Ten Picks


Also like:

Chiefs -1 over BRONCOS
Rams +6 over NINERS
Eagles -3 over REDSKINS

If forced to choose:

Seahawks +3.5 over CARDINALS
BUCS -7 over Panthers
Jets -3 over BROWNS
COLTS -7 over Bengals
JAGUARS -1 over Texans
Titans -1 over DOLPHINS
FALCONS -1 over Ravens $
Cowboys +13.5 over GIANTS
Vikings -1 over BEARS
Lions +2.5 over BILLS
Patriots +4.5 over STEELERS

Lock season record: 1-0
Really like season record: 2-1
Also like season record: 20-14-1
If forced to choose season record: 41-46-2
All games season record: 64-61-4

Kamis, 11 November 2010

You're Getting Older...

I often do chores such as laundry, cooking, washing dishes, etc downstairs where the TV is. I like to put on a recorded TV program I can listen to while doing this stuff. In the past it was usually Jim Rome is Burning. A few months ago I switched it to news. I have been going with CBS Evening News With Katie Couric but feel like there might be a better option available. My aunt recommended PBS NewsHour with Jim Lehrer, which I'm sure is excellent, but is also a full hour long. It has to be a half hour for me. I also prefer more of a world view. Any recommendations would be appreciated.

Selasa, 09 November 2010

My Trip to Ireland & The UK


I wrote up my September/October trip to Ireland, London, & Scotland on everlater. I put some time into this and everlater is a cool site, so check it out.

http://www.everlater.com/gnightmoon




Senin, 08 November 2010

My 100 Favorite Songs: #10

Black Rebel Motorcycle Club - Salvation



I've gone to the well for this more than I'd wish. Salvation is medicine for dark times.

Kamis, 04 November 2010

Week Eight Observations



1. Football Outsiders have the Kansas City Chiefs as the #1 team in the NFL through eight weeks. This is obviously pretty surprising, but the truly stunning part of their analysis is ranking KC fifth in passing efficiency this season. As a Dwayne Bowe fantasy owner, this lofty ranking seems almost impossible. But FO's measures are based purely on efficiency. The Chiefs rank 31st in passing attempts while Matt Cassel has only thrown three interceptions and been sacked just eight times.

2. Todd Haley continues to go for it in 4th down situations that make Bill Belichick look like a Tea Party member. The latest was a 4th and 3 from the 20 in a 0-0 game at home against the winless Buffalo Bills.

3. Jamaal Charles averaged 5.3 yards per carry as a rookie, 5.9 last year, and is at 6.5 this season. This isn't variance, or "running above expectation", so to speak.

4. It’s nice to see Chiefs CB Brandon Flowers getting some publicity. The guy has been making plays since he entered the league in ’08. He’s got a good shot at making his first Pro Bowl this season.

5. Bad run/pass playcalling and terrible punting and coverage contributed to Buffalo's loss to the Chiefs. The Bills played to win, not to tie, deciding not to call a run down the stretch which would have made it impossible for Kansas City to win outright.

6. In the rapidly-shifting world of kickoff returns, Brandon Banks of Washington has emerged as the best in the league. He possesses the two key qualities any good kick returner must have – speed and fearlessness. Banks is also a very dangerous punt returner.

7. I’m not saying it made sense to bench Donovan McNabb for Rex Grossman, but McNabb did not look close to decent for much of the Detroit game against the Lions.

8. Washington’s offensive line is awful. This is a team that has been surviving on defense and luck.

9. Kevin Smith has always been able to grind out four-yard gains without much space. He is better than Jahvid Best at making lemonade from lemons, though he lacks Best’s explosivity.

10. The Rams are grinding out wins like Knish from Rounders grinds it out at the poker tables. No Fancy Play Syndrome for these guys. Sam Bradford: 25/32, 191 yards, 2 TD, 0 INT vs Carolina.

11. It was Halloween, so Matt Moore dusted off his Jake Delhomme costume and threw a few picks.

12. I think Brian Schottenheimer is one of the best offensive coordinators in the league (my OC of the year last season), but he has games he can't figure out. It happened last year and it has already happened twice for the Jets this season. Having said that, this shutout had more to do with the players on the Jets and Packers than the man calling the plays. You get the feeling New York's season is going to end with a single-digit scoring effort on a cold winter day in Pittsburgh, Foxborough, Baltimore, or Kansas City.

13. Last week the Browns pulled off an incredible fake punt on 4th and 8 in New Orleans. This week the Jets unbelievably tried a fake on 4th and 18 from their own 19 and came up just short. This was the craziest call of the season thus far.

14. The Packers seem to be missing Jermichael Finley more than the Colts are missing Dallas Clark.

15. The injuries to Finley and Donald Driver are drawing attention to the incompetence of James Jones and Jordy Nelson.

16. Troy Smith posted solid numbers in his first start for San Francisco and led the Niners to a win, but he failed the “smell test."

17. I think I’ve finally got the Dallas Cowboys figured out, though I can’t explain the reasons behind their tendencies. The first, and most inexplicable, reason the Cowboys can’t win games is they can’t play defense. They have plenty of good players, but they are not playing well at all. The D hit bottom against a mediocre Jacksonville offense, making David Garrard and Mike Sims-Walker look like Steve Young and Jerry Rice. The Cowboys aren’t generating much of a pass rush, they aren’t stopping the run, and their secondary isn’t covering anyone. The play of the defensive backs recalls the incredibly bad secondaries of the ’08 Broncos and Lions, who had two of the worst defenses in the history of the NFL. None of this makes much sense, because most of these players have been part of solid units the last few years. Less than one year ago the Cowboys walked into the Superdome and pummeled an undefeated Saints team, led by the same defense that would now have trouble stopping some of the better college teams.

18. Sometimes when things aren’t going my way, I vow to “make my own luck.” The Dolphins made some costly mistakes and had a couple key plays go against them vs. Cincinnati, but they made their own luck and beat the Bengals to improve to 4-0 on the road. It helps to employ the services of Dan Carpenter, booter of ten field goals the last two weeks. Carpenter is now the most accurate kicker in NFL history, albeit with a sample size of 73 kicks.

19. The play of Darren Sproles has been in decline since he signed a big contract two seasons ago.

20. Meanwhile, the promising career of Ryan Mathews is off to a rough start. His first problem is that he runs behind a line that can’t run-block. His second is that he got banged up early, missed some time, and now finds himself in a platoon with Sproles and Mike Tolbert. His third is a common issue you see with a lot of young running backs. He fumbled a few times early on, and has since adapted his natural running style to be more conservative. He doesn’t run as aggressively as he did when he hit the pros, though he is still pretty tough to bring down.

21. San Diego finally caught a few breaks:

  • Tennessee’s Kenny Britt went down early with a hamstring and did not return
  • Vince Young went down late with a recurring ankle
  • The Titans came in with a questionable game plan and only gave Chris Johnson fifteen carries
  • The Titans dropped six passes on the day, including a game-sealing drop by Johnson on fourth and two in the red zone down eight with a minute left

22. The Chargers once again suffered from some special teams breakdowns, including a blocked punt for safety and blown extra point, but their offense and defense continue to play well. You can’t afford to bet against the second best quarterback in the league.

23. It really is incredible how poorly Seattle plays away from home, how consistently this happens, and how thoroughly this affliction infects the whole team. Whether it’s the offensive line, defensive line, secondary, quarterback, wide receivers, or kicker, anyone in a white Seattle jersey uncannily becomes bad at football upon departure from the Emerald City.

24. But when a team has to come to their house, as the New York Giants do this Sunday in a classic Trap Game, it’s a different story.

25. Jason Campbell is playing well and making good distribution decisions.

26. Darrius Heyward-Bey: 5 catches, 105 yards, 1 TD on Sunday. Seriously.

27. As well as the Raiders have played the last two weeks, they have also been catching the breaks. I think the Chiefs will find a way to win Sunday’s showdown in Oaktown.

28. LeGarrette Blount isn’t the quickest cat, but he is running with amazing ferocity. You see this a lot – young backs taken from the back end of the draft (or like Blount, Arian Foster, and Benjarvus Green-Ellis, not drafted at all) who run like there’s no tomorrow. It never lasts more than a few years (see Barber, Marion and Jacobs, Brandon) but it’s fun while it lasts.

29. Last week I described how “the best team in the NFC” turned a 1st and goal at the 6 into a 3rd and goal at the 34. This week they pulled off this hideous sequence with the game on the line in Arizona:

1st & 10 at the 22, Bucs ball after intercepting a tipped pass. Bucs up 38-35, 5:01 left. Arizona has all three timeouts, Bucs have none (red flag #1). With both safeties visibly cheating up into the box, Josh Freeman hands off to Blount. The big man is pulled down by run-blitzing linebacker Gerald Hayes for a loss of 2.

2nd & 10 at the 24: Blount runs for two yards.

3rd & 10 at the 22 (now 3:34 left): Swashbuckling Buccaneer captain Freeman takes a 14-yard sack.

Cardinals call timeout (a mistake in my book as they should save the timeouts to give themselves a chance to make a second comeback drive should the first one quickly fail).

4th and 25 at the 36: This is a tough decision whether to punt or try to double the lead to six with a field goal. If you miss, the Cards will have excellent field position. This really comes down to how much confidence you have in your kicker to make a 53-yard field goal. Bucs opt to send Connor Barth out for the attempt. Kick is blocked. Cardinals take over at the 43 yard line. Obviously Derek Anderson throws a red zone interception, Blount changes field position with this spectacular run, a desperate last-minute Arizona drive runs out of time, and “the best team in the NFC” improves to 5-2.

30. Even more so than the Randy Moss fiasco, the drafting and misusage of Toby Gerhart illuminates the lack of vision from Minnesota’s higher-ups. Gerhart looks lost.

31. Minnesota’s lack of a pass rush (no sacks in three straight games) and generally disappointing defensive line play is inexplicable. Jared Allen is AWOL.

32. But by far the biggest culprit for Minnesota’s 2-5 record is strength of schedule. The Vikings play arguably the worst team in the league, Arizona, this Sunday in Minneapolis.

33. The 6-1 New England Patriots will appear atop a lot of power rankings this week. The Pats are certainly well-coached and lack discernable weaknesses, but also lack explosive players. They are grinding out wins rather than blowing teams out of the building, Raider-style. New England’s remaining schedule (@Cleveland, @Pittsburgh, Indy, @Detroit, New York Jets, @Chicago, Green Bay, @Buffalo, Miami) will test them in every way that a team can be tested.

34. Drew Brees finished the game 34/44 for 288 yards with two touchdowns and one interception. But they didn’t come easy. This was a sharp, focused, grinder’s effort from one of the best in the game at home in a game the Saints wanted and needed more than their opponents. Pittsburgh has the league’s best defense and the league’s best team.



Power Rankings

32. Arizona (32)
31. Carolina (31)

30. Buffalo (30)
29. Denver (28)
28. San Francisco (29)

27. St. Louis (23)
26. Tampa Bay (26)
25. Dallas (20)
24. Jacksonville (27)

23. Seattle (21)
22. Cleveland (24)

21. Detroit (22)
20. Oakland (25)

19. Cincinnati (18)

18. Washington (18)

17. Chicago (19)

16. Houston (16)
15. Minnesota (14)
14. San Diego (15)
13. Kansas City (13)
12. Green Bay (12)
11. Miami (11)

10. New Orleans (10)
9. Atlanta (9)
8. Tennessee (8)
7. Philadelphia (10)
6. New York Jets (4)
5. New England (6)
4. New York Giants (3)
3. Baltimore (2)
2. Indianapolis (5)
1. Pittsburgh (1)

Week Nine Picks



Also like:

TEXANS +3 over Chargers
Jets -4 over LIONS
SEAHAWKS +whatever it ends up at over Giants
Chiefs +2.5 over RAIDERS

If forced to choose:

VIKINGS -9.5 over Cardinals
Colts +3 over EAGLES
FALCONS -9 over Bucs
BILLS +3 over Bears
BENGALS +4.5 over Steelers
BROWNS +4 over Patriots
Cowboys +7.5 over PACKERS
Saints -6.5 over PANTHERS
Dolphins +5 over RAVENS


Lock season record: 1-0
Really like season record: 2-1
Also like season record: 20-10-2
If forced to choose season record: 38-41-1
All games season record: 61-52-3

My 100 Favorite Songs: Addendum

Brendan Benson - Alternative To Love



A dynamic, mercurial masterpiece about the most dynamic, mercurial thing in the human experience: dating. This is as good a song as there has ever been about being single, a modern "Black Coffee in Bed."

I have no clue what show these clips are from or which one is Jack and which one is Sam.

Selasa, 02 November 2010

October Top 15


15. A.R. Rahman, Wendy Parr & Blaaze - Dreams On Fire
14. Metric - Gimme Sympathy
13. Death Cab For Cutie - Transatlanticism
12. Ray LaMontagne - New York City's Killing Me
11. The Rolling Stones - Midnight Rambler

10. K.T. Tunstall - Under the Weather
9. John Mayer feat. Taylor Swift - Half of My Heart
8. Bruce Springsteen - Human Touch
7. Big Country - In A Big Country
6. Owl City - Vanilla Twilight

5. Shawn Mullins - Anchored In You
4. Spoon - My Mathematical Mind
3. Kelley McRae - Never Be
2. Jets to Brazil - Sweet Avenue

Song of the Month: The Rolling Stones - Let it Bleed

Rabu, 27 Oktober 2010

Week Seven Observations


1. Check out this sequence from “the best team in the NFC” after recovering a Sam Bradford fumble at the St. Louis 6-yard line:

1st and goal, 6-yard line: Josh Freeman throws a pass to Kellen Winslow in the back of the end zone. Winslow catches it but lands out of bounds. Winslow is flagged for offensive pass interference.

1st and goal, 16-yard line: LeGarrette Blount, who you should pick up in fantasy ASAP if still available, breaks four tackles on a very rough three yard gain. Holding on guard Jeremy Zuttah.

1st and goal, 26-yard line: Josh Freeman is sacked by three Rams for a loss of ten.

2nd and goal, 36-yard line: Cadillac Williams picks his way for two yards.

3rd and goal, 34-yard line: Freeman throws what ultimate Frisbee players call “a hospital pass” up for grabs towards Mike Williams and two Rams. Williams, who is on the short list of players I will be looking to sign to a 3-year contract in my fantasy keeper league in 2011, skies to make the catch at the 12-yard line, lands, takes a hit, somehow stays on his feet, fumbles, and somehow recovers the ball amongst a cluster of Rams. Bucs kick a field goal and take a 3-0 lead.

2. Tampa Bay has the worst crowd in the league.

3. Danny Amendola is more of "a middle-class man’s Wes Welker" than “a poor man’s Wes Welker."

4. Bucs +3 over CARDINALS is one of those games that drives me nuts as a gambler – these could be the two most overrated teams in the league. You can't bet against both.

5. The longer Alex Smith stays injured and the Niners have to play David Carr, the higher Smith’s stock should rise. Oh wait, nevermind – the Niners have already opted for Troy Smith over Carr.

6. An annoying trend right now is the excessive cutbacks ball carriers are making rather than just taking the outside yardage available. Marshawn Lynch has always been the biggest offender in this department.

7. Another annoying trend: coaches screwing up the decision to go for 1 or 2. Although there are some subtleties to these decisions, they’re not rocket science. This is 2010. Much like players report to OTAs, coaches should practice game and clock management in the offseason. Or maybe Roger Goodell should start fining coaches for particularly egregious game management errors.

8. All things considered I think this was the coolest, craziest play of the season.



9. Just when I was ready to give the Manginius credit for an amazing coaching performance against the Saints, he made the worst challenge of the season, actually turning a Saints 4th and 3 field goal attempt into a Saints 4th and 1 and subsequent conversion followed three plays later by a Saints touchdown.

10. Both the Bears and Redskins are particularly adept at making their opponents play like crap this season. This seems to be more than just solid defensive play, which both teams have. Opponents are dropping and fumbling balls and missing throws with greater frequency against Chicago and Washington.

11. I am one of those bleeding heart Jay Cutler supporters that somehow still believes all his problems result from the inadequacies of those around him and not his own mistakes.

12. Ray Rice's play seems to have regressed closer to his rookie season than last year's.

13. The San Diego Chargers are a fascinating team. The general rule in the NFL is that you need a quality quarterback to win. With Philip Rivers, San Diego has a QB who is, at worst, the second best in the world right now. Incredibly, the Chargers also feature an excellent defense, probably a top-5 unit. But San Diego is 2-5. The combination of Rivers and a staunch defense should ensure a playoff berth, yet the Chargers postseason hopes are dwindling quickly.

San Diego has the worst special teams in the league, and has an excellent chance to wind up with the worst special teams in the history of the NFL.

Special teams performance is typically more variable than offensive or defensive performance. It’s essentially impossible for San Diego’s special teams not to improve as the season progresses.

All five losses have come by one score or less. Four have come on the road against decent but not elite teams. Incredibly, the 2-5 Chargers are at +28 on the season in point differential. Football Outsiders actually has them as the 8th best team in the league, which doesn’t seem too far off to me.

The Chargers have been hit acutely by injuries at wide receiver, losing their top two wideouts (top three including holdout Vincent Jackson) as well as a hobbled Antonio Gates. The guys playing wide receiver for them this past week were bottom of the barrel sorts called up from the practice squad and/or recently acquired on waivers.

San Diego has a hard time running the ball, especially in short-yardage situations.

San Diego’s remaining schedule is favorable. A 7-2 finish is reasonable. But the Chiefs may well win ten games this season, and nine won’t be enough for a Wild Card in the AFC. The Chargers made the playoffs after starting 4-8 in 2008, but that won’t happen again.

San Diego would be the best team to wager on the rest of the season but for one problem: the Chargers are typically one of the most overvalued teams in the league by the public, thanks to a flashy offense and success in high profile games during the Norv Turner era.


14. Kudos to Ryan Wanger for finding this clip a week before the worst defeat in Denver Broncos history.



15. Every year I seem to badly misevaluate one team and stubbornly refuse to budge them despite mounting evidence. Last year it was the Giants – I maintained they were one of the league’s best as the losses continued to pile up. This year it was…the Giants. Consider me convinced now. The Giants are absolutely loaded on both sides of the ball; I see no weaknesses.

Evaluating these teams can be maddening. Last year New York’s defensive line, stacked beyond comprehension, just didn’t play well. Knowing how good players can be and watching them underperform (this year I’m looking at you, Jay Ratliff) is incredibly frustrating for the football gambler.

The Giants won Super Bowl XLII in large part because of their defensive line and a brilliant game plan installed by then defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo. Their defense dominated again in 2008 (without Osi Umenyiora) under Spagnuolo’s direction, but faded in 2009 despite Umenyiora’s return and incredible depth. There was no one to pin this decline on other than new defensive coordinator Bill Sheridan, promoted after Spagnuolo took the head coaching position in St. Louis.

Last season the Buffalo Bills sucked pretty hard, but their defense (particularly their pass defense) was a bright spot. The Bills upgraded to down right mediocre after firing Dick Jauron midseason and installing defensive coordinator Perry Fewell as interim coach. Buffalo blew up the building after the season, letting go of Fewell and the entire coaching staff. Fewell moved across the state to guide the Giants D. Now Buffalo’s defense could be the worst in the league, New York’s could be the best, and Fewell is on the short list of candidates to replace the likes of Jack Del Rio and Mike Singletary at season’s end.

16. In a week in which the dominant news story in the NFL was a crackdown on big hits by the defense, more points were scored per game than any week in seventeen years.


Power Rankings


32. Arizona (30)
31. Carolina (31)
30. Buffalo (32)

29. San Francisco (26)
28. Denver (21)

27. Jacksonville (28)

26. Tampa Bay (25)

25. Oakland (29)

24. Cleveland (24)

23. St. Louis (27)

22. Detroit (23)

21. Seattle (22)
20. Dallas (9)

19. Chicago (20)

18. Cincinnati (19)
17. Washington (18)

16. Houston (16)
15. San Diego (17)

14. Minnesota (15)
13. Kansas City (14)

12. Green Bay (6)

11. Miami (13)
10. New Orleans (7)
9. Atlanta (8)

8. Tennessee (12)
7. Philadelphia (10)

6. New England (6)
5. Indianapolis (3)

4. New York Jets (4)
3. New York Giants (11)

2. Baltimore (2)

1. Pittsburgh (1)





Week Eight Picks


Also like:

RAMS -3 over Panthers
SAINTS -1 over Steelers

If forced to choose:

Texans +5.5 over COLTS
CHIEFS -7.5 over Bills
JETS -6 over Packers
Bucs +3 over CARDINALS
Seahawks +2.5 over RAIDERS
LIONS -2.5 over Redskins
Broncos +1.5 over Niners
Dolphins +1.5 over BENGALS
Vikings +6 over PATRIOTS
Titans +3.5 over CHARGERS
Jaguars +6.5 over COWBOYS


Lock season record: 1-0
Really like season record: 2-1
Also like season record: 18-10-2
If forced to choose season record: 34-34-1
All games season record: 55-45-3