Offseason Observations Part II: The AFC

I am not a college football expert. I do not watch game tape of obscure college games and players. I don’t pore over 40 yard dash times, vertical leaps, standing broad jumps, bench presses, or Wonderlic test scores. I couldn’t tell you if Mark Sanchez is the next Tom Brady, if Tyson Jackson went too early at #3 overall, or who was the best center in the draft. But I am a games player. I understand concepts like game theory, opportunity cost, elasticity of demand, and risk vs reward. My favorite board game, The Settlers of Catan, is all about resource management and trading. My second favorite board game, Puerto Rico, is all about microeconomics and game theory. So while I can’t analyze the NFL draft in terms of personnel, I can break it down from a gamer’s perspective – how well each team allocated and organized their limited resources. And I can dissect the transactions teams have made for players who have already played in the NFL, as well as the positional strengths and weaknesses of the teams and where I expect they will be weak or strong.

1. I can tell you that what the New England Patriots did (trading two third-rounders for second-rounders in 2010) is efficient. What the Denver Broncos did (trading a 2010 first rounder for the 37th pick in this year’s draft, then trading two third-rounders for the last pick of the second round) is clearly inefficient. I hate using future picks as trading up in the draft. How can these execs be so short-sighted? How can it possibly be worth it to lose a round’s worth of value just to get a guy a year earlier? There are a lot of reasons why the Patriots are the league’s top franchise, and their strategy of repeatedly trading current picks for better future ones is a big part of it. Belichick & co. are laughing all the way to the bank.

2. I also like what the Patriots have done in free agency. Shawn Springs is an excellent player who was playing at a very high level last year before he was injured. Leigh Bodden seemed like one of Detroit’s better players on defense. You won’t be seeing Deltha O’Neal anymore, Pats fans. And Fred Taylor still has a spring in his step. To me, the Patriots are the favorite this upcoming season and every one in the future.

3. Everyone seems to be glowing over the Jets trade with Cleveland to grab Mark Sanchez. But the Jets gave up five players (the 17th pick, the 52nd pick, DE Kenyon Coleman, S Abram Elam, and QB Brett Ratliff) to get one back! This trade would never fly in Settlers of Catan. Not only did they give up five players, but four of them (assuming the picks aren’t busts) will be significant contributors. Even Ratliff has generated some positive buzz. I hate trading five players for one mystery quantity.

Speaking of Sanchez, it seems most of the positive hype surrounding him centered on his interviews and leadership skills. This is football, not politics. Can he play? Can he make the throws? Meanwhile, all the Sanchez highlights I saw were with no defenders around, throwing to streaking wide receivers with no defenders around them in perfect weather. Let’s see how he fares against the Patriots in December. By the way, New York’s two best receivers are Jerricho Cotchery and Chansi Stuckey, and their offensive line looked like crap late last season. The Jets traded a third-rounder (which would have been a second rounder if they had made the playoffs, first rounder if they had made the Super Bowl) for Brett Favre in August and now traded five players for Sanchez. To me, this doesn’t seem like an efficient way to build a team. People are saying Sanchez is the type of player “you can build a team around” but how are they going to build with no picks and no cap space?

4. I like the T.O. signing for the Bills – minimal commitment and you get first-year T.O. and contract-year T.O. together at a reasonable price. But jettisoning OT Jason Peters does seem contradictory.

5. For me, the most shocking event of the offseason didn’t involve Jay Cutler. It was Nnamdi Asomugha resigning with the Raiders. Here’s a guy, best in the league, in the prime of his career, who could have played for anyone. Having witnessed the immolation of the Raiders first-hand, he decided to stick around for another three years. If he didn’t sign he may have been franchised a second straight year. That fear, along with the record-breaking deal the Raiders gave him and Asomugha's Nocal roots and residency, were enough to get him to sign.

6. Surprisingly, the Raiders also managed to hold on to punter Shane Lechler, either the best or second best in (the history of?) the league. Again, it was a record-breaking contract that convinced a previously disgruntled player to stick around.

7. Even if you think Darrius Heyward-Bey and Michael Mitchell are the best players available at the time, why not trade the picks and move down ten slots, then get your guys? What’s happening in Oakland just saddens me. If I lived in Oakland, I would just have to root for someone else.

8. Covered the Denver Broncos here.

9. I think the Chargers are primed for a run at a championship. They are loaded at every position. The buzz on Shawne Merriman, LaDainian Tomlinson, and rookies Larry English and Louis Vasquez is nothing but positive.

10. Losing Derrick Mason would have killed the Ravens. He was their offensive MVP last year. They have no one to fill the void. Cam Cameron, my reigning offensive co-ordinator of the year, will have his hands full again.

11. Don’t forget that the Bengals get Keith Rivers, the 9th pick of the 2008 draft, back from a broken jaw.

12. Eric Mangini continues to develop as the Villain amongst NFL coaches, and may even relish that role.

13. The Texans have a lot riding on Matt Schaub’s health. Their backups: Dan Orlovsky, Alex Brink, Rex Grossman.

14. The 2009 Colts will be an interesting case study on how much coaching affects a team.

15. Remember that Jason Jones, a rookie in 2008, had 3.5 sacks and 3 forced fumbles filling in for an injured Albert Haynesworth last year against Pittsburgh. Remember that everyone and their mom was on the Pittsburgh bandwagon for that game, which was for AFC homefield advantage, and the Titans pasted the Steelers. Remember that Tennessee was the best team of 2008, and would have been in good position to win a Super Bowl but for a fluky loss to the Ravens in which the Titans held a near 2:1 lead in yardage.

July Top 15

15. Bob Dylan - Just Like a Woman
14. Cake - Sheep Go To Heaven
13. Ryan Adams - Two
12. The Waifs - Goodbye
11. Ryan Adams - Oh My Sweet Carolina

10. Cake - End of the Movie
9. Katy Perry - Waking Up in Vegas
8. Jimmy Buffett - Fins
7. Green Day - 21st Century Breakdown
6. Jackson Browne - Running on Empty

5. Sublime - Date Rape
4. The Beatles - Yesterday
3. Cake - Palm of Your Hand
2. Green Day - 21 Guns

Song of the Month: Sublime - Doin' Time

WSOP Recap Part Two: Grades

Five years at the WSOP. Five different experiences with little in common other than the oppressive heat. Three losing years and two winning ones. Three years spent in a house and two in hotels. Zero main event cashes. Dozens of near-death incidents on the I-15. It seems I always have a dry, bitter taste in my mouth lingering in my mouth this time of year, yet by the time May rolls around I can never wait to go back. Someday I may conquer the WSOP; until then, there will always be this post, more time to reflect on another disappointing six weeks in Vegas.

Ace-king: D+
I still haven’t figured out what to do with these two cards in a lot of situations. It seems like if you’re playing a big pot at the World Series with ace-king, especially at a nine or ten-handed table, you’re probably way behind. Big slick is a big hand for real loose-aggressive players. It’s a big hand when you have ten big blinds. It's usually a big hand in online donkaments. It’s a big hand blind on blind. It’s not a big hand for nits, it’s not a big hand when you get reraised by your standard WSOP participant, and it’s usually not a big hand to get all your chips in – at any stage of the hand.

Alcohol: D+
Hard to believe last year at this time I gave this poison a B+. I don’t seem to enjoy getting drunk anymore. I’d rather be sober than drunk, though halfway between isn’t bad. It’s the headaches that broke me. It’s not worth feeling like crap. The older I get, the more I want to just feel good. Alcohol doesn’t make me feel good.

All this and I’m a “good” drinker. I don’t do stupid things when I drink. I don’t become a different person. I don’t black out (I vomit). Basically, I don’t do things I wouldn’t do otherwise (except dance).

But so many people aren’t like this. So many people become stupid and annoying when they drink. So many do terrible, damaging things when they’re drunk. So many people can’t control alcohol, can’t use it appropriately. Alcohol is just such a powerful force, for better or for worse. There are too many things I like about the stuff to give it up completely, but “drinking to get drunk” will rarely be part of my future.

Away We Go: C-
I thought Sam Mendes & co. came out flat in this one, though someone I know thought it was one of the best.

Bruno: C
The elaborate setups and interviews weren’t bad, but the desperation humor wore thin. You can only squeeze so many drops of humor out of a penis.

Cake: A-
Cake seemingly provides the soundtrack for every situation one might encounter while spending a WSOP in Vegas:
Going out: Frank Sinatra
Stalled in traffic on the I-15: Long Line of Cars
Met a girl at the club last night: Love You Madly
Sunset: Alpha Beta Parking Lot
Hungover: No Phone
Upset with double standards: Pretty Pink Ribbon
Stalled in traffic on the 215: Carbon Monoxide
Betrayed: Friend Is A Four Letter Word
Golddigging: Italian Leather Sofa
Driving around in Henderson: Wheels
Stalled in traffic on the Strip: Race Car Ya-Yas
The last gasp: End of the Movie
Leaving town: Tougher Than It Is

Green Day: B+
Forget for a second that 21st Century Breakdown sounds like an inferior sequel to 2004’s American Idiot. At this point, who else is capable of streaking together eighteen quality tunes without a clunker? Has Green Day inherited the moniker of Best Band in the World?

The Hangover: B+
The best Vegas movie ever made? Encapsulates the full Vegas experience in a hundred minutes. Apparently a “Hangover 2” is already in the works – expect a C- grade in this post circa July 28, 2011.

Hibachi: B+
Anyone know a good place in the Boulder area?

Las Vegas, NV: C-
There are many times I am convinced this is the worst place in America, the most deplorable, unhealthy, wasteful, unnatural, ghastly, sickening, wretched city of the first world. There is so much to despise about this outlandish oasis. The heat. The dreadfully designed roads. The traffic. The dangerous drivers. The retarded traffic lights throughout the city, which don’t recognize cars waiting on red when no one is approaching the green. The lack of public transportation in a town made for public transpo. The omnipresent construction. The mobs of tourists. The lack of respect for humanity. The despicable characters scouring the town like leeches sniffing for blood. The vapid strip malls. The drug dealers, the scumbags, the whores. The horrible casinos. The processed air. The undrinkable water. The unbreathable air. The myriad illnesses drifting around. The waste. The stunning ineffiency of it all.

Yet Las Vegas will always have its redeeming qualities. If you like to eat and drink, there are few better places in the world to do so. I spent a week in Vegas after the WSOP bustout, doing nothing but eating and drinking and vacationing following the recommendations of Las Vegas residents. And you know what? It was a good week. Las Vegas remains the preeminent destination for two of my favorite things – poker and food.

M: A-
M is a new casino several miles south of South Point off the I-15/Las Vegas Boulevard. It looks great. The buffet could be the best in Vegas, and includes all-you-can-drink beer and wine. Veloce Cibo is the obligatory modern restaurant/nightclub elevated at the top of the building. It has an outdoor terrace which would be great nine months of the year, expansive views of the surrounding desert, and a strong modern menu. 32° features 96 different beers on tap. The Hostile Grape is a wine cellar with 160 different wines available for sampling 1, 3, or 5 oz at a time using a pre-paid card. An ideal spot for a first date – though if you are trying to start a relationship in Las Vegas, you should have your head examined.

My Play: B
I’m pleased with the style I’ve developed. I’m comfortable playing a stack of any size. I feel I need to get unlucky to get knocked out of a tournament. I don’t make many mistakes. The style I’m playing is not optimal, but it is the right style for me right now, it is low variance, and it is a winning style in almost any situation.

Palazzo: B-
I know a guy who refuses to eat at this casino because of the perfume smell pumped through the place along with the air conditioning, which encapsulates where the Palazzo goes wrong: it’s all meant to look elegant yet casual, but comes off as trying too hard without the innate class of the Bellagio or the Wynn. Despite that smell, Palazzo does boast some strong restaurants; Carnevino, First Food, and Dos Caminos are three I have come to enjoy.

P.F. Chang’s: B
The best chain restaurant?

Praying: B+
I started praying for people I know before I go to sleep. It’s a nice way to wrap up the day with some perspective. It puts the mind to ease.

So to recap: this summer I stopped binge drinking and started praying. Vegas, baby. Vegas.

The Red Square: B+
Russian restaurant/vodka bar, Mandalay Bay. Serves a great spicy bloody mary and a sneaky good key lime pie martini.

Rental Houses: C-
I’ve finally come to the conclusion that sharing a house with a bunch of gamblers – who invariably keep wild hours, usually have vastly different lifestyles, and generally have no regard for cleanliness – might not be the best recipe for a successful, low-stress six weeks in Vegas. Throw in the nagging landlord, the sterile, unequipped house, the pool which is never a reasonable temperature, the hassle of finding and paying for the place, the noncommittal residents, no pets, the obligatory internet problems, the charmless location, and the I-15 commute, and it’s enough to convince me to pursue different accomodations in 2010.

Star Trek: B
Solid entertainment start to finish. I’m still upset that J.J. Abrams is the captain of the 21st century Hollywood sci-fi revival, but we could be in worse hands.

Table Games: D+
I am embarrassed to report I logged several hours in the pit this summer. Some of that time was spent playing a table game which
a) may very well be beatable
b) is a lot of fun for poker players
c) may soon be the subject of Bringing Down the House 2

while the rest of that time was spent playing craps, a game which is
a) unbeatable
b) almost beatable
c) fun if you are winning
d) fun with a large group

Morally, I have unwavering qualms playing any game that is unbeatable. To me casinos are amongst the most loathsome, evil, duplicitous places on earth. Playing a game which you know you cannot win in the long term claws at my guts. I enjoy gambling right down to a 50% edge, but as soon as it crosses to negative expected value it becomes a service you are paying for and not a game you are playing. The whole reason I got into this business was because I love outplaying people. I find it absolutely disgusting that anyone, including many of the most talented poker players in the world, could enjoy a game which they are expected to lose.

Having said that…it’s exciting when you need a six to get rolled and it gets rolled…the casinos really hook you up with the comps…it’s really exciting when you need a four to get rolled and it gets rolled…free drinks…

Of course if you need to get off throwing dice, you can always play Catan.

Twitter: A-
There’s not much to dislike here. You can use it as much or as little as you want. It’s easy to use. You can follow your favorite friends, athletes, and celebrities. You can ignore it altogether. It’s forever part of poker and the industry’s better for it.

I’ll be back on twitter for the next big event of the year: the 2009 NFL season, starting September 10.

My 100 Favorite Songs: #37

The Presidents of the United States of America - Naked and Famous

There will always be a part of me that badly wants to be famous, even with the knowledge that likely wouldn't make me any happier.

WSOP Recap Part One: Lessons Learned From Party of Five

When I was in middle school, my family finally upgraded to a bigscreen tv and I got a hold of the old, tiny rabbit ears box we had been using and set it up on a wardrobe in my room. The antenna was broken so the set only got a fuzzy PBS and a generally clear FOX. The best show on FOX back then was Ally McBeal, and I also watched Frasier reruns as I tried to fall asleep. Somewhere in there I started watching Party of Five, probably because the show had Neve Campbell, Jennifer Love Hewitt, and Lacey Chabert in it.

Party of Five also starred Matthew Fox, now Jack on Lost, one of the worst prominent actors working today. Fox's character, Charlie, had assumed patriarchal duties after the family's parents had been killed. Charlie was almost as devoid of personality as Lost's Jack. Much of the show was concerned with Charlie's battle with cancer. Finally, after years of battle, the cancer went into remission. Charlie went out to celebrate and impregnated a stripper.

That was the last I ever watched of the show. It was a soap opera, and I don't watch soap operas. I was disgusted that they would immediately bolt in with a fresh catastrophe the moment after the show's primary denouement had finally been reached. There was no down time, no chance to enjoy that epic victory, no moment in the sun. Just more drama.

There was a fleeting moment in May when I had found what I believed to be legitimate happiness. Then came Las Vegas.

Things were chugging along decently at the WSOP, certainly not glorious but not too troublesome. Then my cousin committed suicide. My cousin was a wonderful, effervescent man who brought happiness to others, but fortune was not on his side. My cousin's mother has had multiple sclerosis for many years. My cousin was diagnosed with MS himself. I believe his first-hand knowledge of the disease proved too oppressive a sentence.

Shortly after I returned to Vegas, something terrible happened. I was betrayed by people close to me. The memories of that awful incident have since receded, and I have forgiven the people involved. But it still reverberates in my head, a reminder of evolution's most horrifying property: people are not meant to be happy.

We are meant to grow, and age, and procreate, and care for each other. But nowhere in there is there any reason for enduring happiness. Evolution wants us to mate and raise healthy children, and these things may in fact bring us joy. But evolution doesn't require, or even ask for, anyone to be happy. Those other goals come first; happiness is an unnecessary byproduct.

This all must sound rather doom and gloom, yet that is not my disposition. The realization that I cannot expect prolonged contentment is somewhat of a relief. That was too lofty a goal. Life is more feasible with the knowledge that happiness is a side-effect, not an aspiration. There is always hope for happiness, and it will always exist in some form. But as Charlie found out, the light at the end of the tunnel might just be fairer shades of grey.

My 100 Favorite Songs: #38

Marcy Playground - Sex and Candy

Marcy Playground is a decent band, I promise. Some other good songs:

Saint Joe on the School Bus
Poppies
The Shadow of Seattle
No One's Boy
Comin' Up From Behind

My 100 Favorite Songs: #39

Badly Drawn Boy - You Were Right



Turning Madonna down and calling it your best move - the highest fantasy.