Offseason Observations Part III: The NFC

1. Philadelphia team president Joe Banner has stated “I feel this year we have the best roster in the league.” This may be true, but the Eagles have taken some serious hits on defense. Longtime defensive coordinator Jim Johnson, one of the best at his craft, passed away a couple weeks ago. Middle linebacker Stewart Bradley is out for the season. Longtime captain Brian Dawkins was not resigned and found a new home in Denver.

2. The Eagles upgraded their offensive line substantially, bringing in tackles Jason Peters from Buffalo and Stacy Andrews from Cincinnati. Stacy’s brother Shawn (guard) returns from an injury that kept him out for all of 2008. But the Philly line has not played together yet in camp or preseason due to a slew of minor injuries. Cohesion on the offensive line is critical.

3. Philly also added several skill position playmakers to their offense. WR Jeremy Maclin was drafted in the first round. RB LeSean McCoy, who does not impress me, came in the second. TE Cornelius Ingram, who missed his senior season at Florida with a torn ACL, was snagged in the fifth round and looked to be a steal based on a stellar camp. But Ingram tore the same ACL and is lost for another season.

4. Finally came the stunning signing of the NFL’s most polarizing player, fresh out of prison, Michael Vick. Vick’s 2009 impact is hard to predict. He will likely be suspended for at least five games to start the season. He plays behind Donovan McNabb, who has a similar skill set – if more refined and less explosive. With all the playmakers the Eagles have, they may not ask much of Vick.

5. One area the Eagles can be expected to use Vick is third and short, where they struggled mightily last season. Converting a few extra third downs might be all the Eagles need from Vick to be one of the league’s top offenses this season.

6. But I remember how Donovan McNabb struggled so much at the beginning of games last season, how it seemed like he never warmed up. I remember Andy Reid screwing up the clock. I remember Philly handling the Vikings and Giants on the road because of Jim Johnson’s schemes. And I wonder if Philadelphia will actually be any better this season, or if their losses will dwarf their acquisitions.

7. The Giants got 22.5 sacks last year from their defensive line…backups. Their starters are Justin Tuck, Rocky Bernard, Chris Canty, and Osi Umenyiora. This is a terrifying defensive line.

8. I’d be feeling a little better about Kurt Warner making it through the season if the Cardinals had upgraded on Mike Gandy at left tackle

9. Beanie Wells enters a dream situation – a powerful offense with no other serviceable running backs. The most improved fantasy players:

1. Maurice Jones-Drew
First tier for sure now that Fred Taylor has finally left the building – will go #1 in some drafts.
2. Kyle Orton
Gets to throw to Brandon Marshall and Eddie Royal instead of Devin Hester and Marty Booker.
3. Anthony Gonzalez
Should get a ton of looks with Harrison gone.
4. Donnie Avery
STL’s only legit WR with Holt out.
5. Dwayne Bowe
Will likely get a ton of action from Matt Cassel with Tony Gonzalez in Atlanta.
6. Devin Hester
Jay Cutler’s #1 option?
7. Trent Edwards
Helming the controls of a loaded offense.
8. Bernard Berrian
Visanthe Shiancoe may be very potent there as well.
8. Roy Williams
9. Jason Witten
10. Patrick Crayton
11. Miles Austin
All should be draftable now that The Cancer has been cut out.

And the biggest losers:

1. Jay Cutler
Falls all the way from Brees/Manning heights to the middle tier (Kyle Orton, Trent Edwards territory).
2. Tyler Thigpen
Obviously undraftable, at least until Bernard Pollard takes out Matt Cassel’s ACL in practice.
3. Ronnie Brown
May not be seeing as much action in the Wildcat with Pat White in town.
4. Tony Scheffler
Wouldn’t touch him with a ten foot pole. Many more reliable options.
5. Thomas Jones
Tried to play hardball with the Jets and they responded by drafting Shonn Greene.
6. Michael Jenkins
Will have a hard time getting his number called with White, Gonzalez, Turner, Norwood, and Douglas all needing touches.
7. Tony Gonzalez
See Jenkins, Michael.

10. Holdouts kill seasons. Ask Michael Crabtree and the 49ers in a few months. Crabtree’s threat to sit out the season and re-enter the draft in 2010 conjures up memories of Mike Williams.

11. San Francisco has not solved the problem at quarterback. They will not contend with Shaun Hill or Alex Smith.

12. Seattle is getting a lot of hype as a sleeper or rebound team, but injuries (Walter Jones, Marcus Trufant, Lofa Tatupu) and interior issues give me pause. There were times last year I wanted to bet on them but both lines never found the form they had earlier this decade.

13. Rams RB Kenneth Darby, currently listed at #2 on the depth chart behind Steven Jackson, is terrible. Antonio Pittman stinks too. They cannot afford to lose Jackson. This problem should have been addressed in the offseason – watching the games last year it was obvious these guys do not belong in the NFL.

14. Marc Bulger plays scared.

15. The Rams do have some hope on defense – there is some talent there – and Steve Spagnuolo should help.

16. Another team with crappy backup running backs is the Bears. If Matt Forte gets half the action he got last year, he’ll be lucky to stay healthy.

17. I didn’t like the Bears letting go of Mike Brown. He’s aging and oft-injured, but had an uncanny playmaking knack and was a team leader.

18. Although I predict Matt Stafford will be an unmitigated bust, I liked the rest of Detroit’s draft. Everyone seems to love safety Louis Delmas (first pick of round 2). Brandon Pettigrew was one of my favorite college players last year, a beast blocking and catching.

19. The Packers suddenly have a frightening defensive line, with Ryan Pickett, Johnny Jolly, Justin Harrell, Mike Montgomery, Cullen Jenkins coming back from injury, and first round pick B.J. Raji.

20. Brett Favre is not much better than Sage Rosenfels, but he is a better fit for the Vikings offense. Let's remember Minnesota could have avoided all this drama - and gotten a better player for a much lower price - with one phone call to Chad Pennington's agent a year ago.

21. Not sure how Tony Gonzalez fits into that offense. Atlanta ran a smashmouth attack last year, with lots of runs and plenty of deep balls. The tight end rarely got looks. If they want Tony G to be heavily involved, they will have to change the offense. Their offense was so good last year – with a rookie quarterback – why would they want to change it? This signing reminds me of when the Saints traded for Jeremy Shockey. Gonzalez is a better player and teammate than Shockey of course, but I’m not sure how he fits in there.

22. Everything about Atlanta makes me uncomfortable. Could they be this year’s Cleveland Browns? Or are they evolving into the Dungy/Manning Colts? Nothing from the Falcons would surprise me this year.

23. Carolina, like Indianapolis, will be an interesting case study on the power of coaching. The Panthers return an almost identical lineup, but most of their assistant coaches are somewhere else.

24. Tampa Bay is one of a few teams that has gone through this aesthetic cycle:
December ’08: playoff contender
May ’09: left for dead
August ’09: intriguing sleeper

25. There is no such thing as hopeless. At this time last year, nobody gave the Dolphins or Falcons any chance.

My 100 Favorite Songs: #35

The Rolling Stones - Dead Flowers

Proof the Stones would have been the greatest country band ever, if they had wanted to be.

Monday Night

5000

10-20

THE D_RY (biggest name at the table) raises to 60 I call in SB with AQss BB calls as well. Flop AdTd6h I debate betting and end up checking BB checks D_RY checks. Turn 7 I bet 2/3 pot both fold.

Next hand cutoff raises I call on button with K4s flop J76 two clubs he bets I fold.

UTG limps I limp 22 flop 765 BB bets out UTG calls I fold.

Raise AK nobody calls.

Sifting through old emails cleaning up the inbox. Got the Monday night preseason game on the background. Jon Gruden is better than he was last week.

Fold A9o UTG.

Folds to me in SB I fold 96o.

Open-limp button with As5c. BB checks. Flop J42 two clubs BB bets 35 into 50 I make it 100 he calls. Turn Kc check check. River 7d check check he wins with JT.

Fold ATo to UTG raise.

Raise QQ MP all fold.

Next hand fold 85s.

15-30

MP raises D_RY calls I just call in BB even though I “should” reraise. Flop AKx checked around. Turn 8 I check raiser checks D_RY bets I fold.

Folds to me in cutoff I limp A4 hearts. Button limps BB checks. Flop KQ4 two diamonds BB checks I check button bets 70 into 105 BB folds I fold not feeling great about how I played that hand.

Nothing happening at this table guys playing like experienced sit n go players.

Raise AA UTG absolutely no action.

Guy raises early gets a call I fold K8s button.

20-40

Guy raises early I call with KJo MP cause I just feel like playing. Flop Q82 two clubs he bets small I fold.

Adam Schefter now works for ESPN. I’m cool with that.

Raise my favorite hand KTs (clubs this time) from the hijack cutoff calls SB calls. Flop Q76 two hearts one club not exactly what I’m looking for SB goes into the timebank and checks I check cutoff bets hard we both fold.

Raise a former favorite hand T8s nobody calls.

Limp 44 UTG two other guys limp blinds come along flop J88 blinds check I check button bets SB calls I fold.

25-50

Button raises 3x on a bit of a short stack I fold K3s in BB.

Raise KQ three guys call. Flop KTs8s I fire out a big bet basically saying get the f out y’all if anyone raises I will fold if anyone calls I will fire big again on a safe card. All fold.

Fold KTo UTG.

Fold T9o in SB to a D_RY LP raise. By the way, my record of getting 4-bet every time I 3-bet remains intact through the summer.

30-60

Raise KK guy behind me who calls every time calls AKwow also calls on button. Flop J95 I check cause I have been check-folding in these spots both check behind. Turn 9 I check guy bets button folds I call. River 3 check-check he has fours.

Emerging trend I saw a lot of late in the 2500 6-max yesterday is this habit of underbetting the pot on the river. Didn’t see many hands get turned over in those situations.

Break. Nobody bustoed in the first hour.

5426

Raise A6s button win the blinds.

Active guy on shortish stack raises MP I call from cutoff with 5d4d. Flop Th6d2h he checks I bet he calls. Turn 6h he checks I decide to fire 2/3 pot he timebank folds.

40-80

Fold A6s to EP raise I was going to open-fold in 3rd position.

Ahmad Bradshaw, one of my favorite fantasy sleepers, looking good tonight.

Guy who has been average raises in 2nd pos to 200, I make it 544 in cutoff with K3o. Felt like a good spot to put some pressure on him (he would have to play for stacks). He snap calls, so I think he has a pair. Flop 7h5c4c he checks I check. Turn 8h he checks I check. River 8 he checks I check he has AJs and wins.

Three hands later I raise QQ and he calls in SB. Flop Td9h5d he checks I bet he calls. Turn As he bets 400 into 1k I call. River 5s he bets 720 into 1800 I call. Why do I call? Because he has shown himself to be a bluffer? No. Because it makes sense for him to have a bluff here? No. Because I never fold, that’s why. He wins with AdJd.

50-100

Limp T8o in SB BB checks. Flop 953 two clubs I check he bets I fold.

Raise AQ cutoff they fold.

Guy raises 3x early I have gotten a bit short so fold J8s in position.

Limp A7o SB BB who has been loose-passive raises 4x I fold.

Next hand limp JTo button SB raises to 550 but I call! Flop A43 he bets I fold. Hands like that are very spewy of course but when someone makes that kind of bet it tells me they do not want a call. I have position and it is the sort of hand and situation where I feel comfortable calling in position feeling like a jack or ten will usually be good and I can also jam over his c-bet if I flop a draw.

Next hand raise AK cutoff they fold timing has been bad tonight.

3085

60-120

This frustrating hand:
Dealt to GnightMoon [Tc Kc]
tbt4653 folds
enterthewu19 folds
-AKwow- folds
Tiltovic has 15 seconds left to act
Tiltovic raises to 270
WeaponBD folds
THE__D__RY folds
23dontreraiseme folds
bzimzim calls 210
GnightMoon calls 150
*** FLOP *** [Jd Th As]
bzimzim checks
GnightMoon checks
Tiltovic bets 480
bzimzim calls 480
GnightMoon folds
*** TURN *** [Jd Th As] [Qh]
bzimzim checks
Tiltovic checks
*** RIVER *** [Jd Th As Qh] [8d]
bzimzim bets 520
Tiltovic has 15 seconds left to act
Tiltovic has requested TIME
Tiltovic folds
Uncalled bet of 520 returned to bzimzim
bzimzim mucks
bzimzim wins the pot (1,770)

Cutoff raises I elect to fold QTo button on a 2700 stack.

Fold KJo EP.

UTG raises I call in BB with KsJs. Flop 8s4s4 I check he bets I raise 3x potcommitting he jams I call he has 88 I am drawing dead goodnight.

My 100 Favorite Songs: #36

The Shins - New Slang

For some reason it's more irritating than rewarding when a song or band you "discover" blows up.

Cash Plays Interview

Jeremiah Smith interviewed me for his pokerroad radio show "Cash Plays." You can listen to the interview here.

Offseason Observations Part II: The AFC

I am not a college football expert. I do not watch game tape of obscure college games and players. I don’t pore over 40 yard dash times, vertical leaps, standing broad jumps, bench presses, or Wonderlic test scores. I couldn’t tell you if Mark Sanchez is the next Tom Brady, if Tyson Jackson went too early at #3 overall, or who was the best center in the draft. But I am a games player. I understand concepts like game theory, opportunity cost, elasticity of demand, and risk vs reward. My favorite board game, The Settlers of Catan, is all about resource management and trading. My second favorite board game, Puerto Rico, is all about microeconomics and game theory. So while I can’t analyze the NFL draft in terms of personnel, I can break it down from a gamer’s perspective – how well each team allocated and organized their limited resources. And I can dissect the transactions teams have made for players who have already played in the NFL, as well as the positional strengths and weaknesses of the teams and where I expect they will be weak or strong.

1. I can tell you that what the New England Patriots did (trading two third-rounders for second-rounders in 2010) is efficient. What the Denver Broncos did (trading a 2010 first rounder for the 37th pick in this year’s draft, then trading two third-rounders for the last pick of the second round) is clearly inefficient. I hate using future picks as trading up in the draft. How can these execs be so short-sighted? How can it possibly be worth it to lose a round’s worth of value just to get a guy a year earlier? There are a lot of reasons why the Patriots are the league’s top franchise, and their strategy of repeatedly trading current picks for better future ones is a big part of it. Belichick & co. are laughing all the way to the bank.

2. I also like what the Patriots have done in free agency. Shawn Springs is an excellent player who was playing at a very high level last year before he was injured. Leigh Bodden seemed like one of Detroit’s better players on defense. You won’t be seeing Deltha O’Neal anymore, Pats fans. And Fred Taylor still has a spring in his step. To me, the Patriots are the favorite this upcoming season and every one in the future.

3. Everyone seems to be glowing over the Jets trade with Cleveland to grab Mark Sanchez. But the Jets gave up five players (the 17th pick, the 52nd pick, DE Kenyon Coleman, S Abram Elam, and QB Brett Ratliff) to get one back! This trade would never fly in Settlers of Catan. Not only did they give up five players, but four of them (assuming the picks aren’t busts) will be significant contributors. Even Ratliff has generated some positive buzz. I hate trading five players for one mystery quantity.

Speaking of Sanchez, it seems most of the positive hype surrounding him centered on his interviews and leadership skills. This is football, not politics. Can he play? Can he make the throws? Meanwhile, all the Sanchez highlights I saw were with no defenders around, throwing to streaking wide receivers with no defenders around them in perfect weather. Let’s see how he fares against the Patriots in December. By the way, New York’s two best receivers are Jerricho Cotchery and Chansi Stuckey, and their offensive line looked like crap late last season. The Jets traded a third-rounder (which would have been a second rounder if they had made the playoffs, first rounder if they had made the Super Bowl) for Brett Favre in August and now traded five players for Sanchez. To me, this doesn’t seem like an efficient way to build a team. People are saying Sanchez is the type of player “you can build a team around” but how are they going to build with no picks and no cap space?

4. I like the T.O. signing for the Bills – minimal commitment and you get first-year T.O. and contract-year T.O. together at a reasonable price. But jettisoning OT Jason Peters does seem contradictory.

5. For me, the most shocking event of the offseason didn’t involve Jay Cutler. It was Nnamdi Asomugha resigning with the Raiders. Here’s a guy, best in the league, in the prime of his career, who could have played for anyone. Having witnessed the immolation of the Raiders first-hand, he decided to stick around for another three years. If he didn’t sign he may have been franchised a second straight year. That fear, along with the record-breaking deal the Raiders gave him and Asomugha's Nocal roots and residency, were enough to get him to sign.

6. Surprisingly, the Raiders also managed to hold on to punter Shane Lechler, either the best or second best in (the history of?) the league. Again, it was a record-breaking contract that convinced a previously disgruntled player to stick around.

7. Even if you think Darrius Heyward-Bey and Michael Mitchell are the best players available at the time, why not trade the picks and move down ten slots, then get your guys? What’s happening in Oakland just saddens me. If I lived in Oakland, I would just have to root for someone else.

8. Covered the Denver Broncos here.

9. I think the Chargers are primed for a run at a championship. They are loaded at every position. The buzz on Shawne Merriman, LaDainian Tomlinson, and rookies Larry English and Louis Vasquez is nothing but positive.

10. Losing Derrick Mason would have killed the Ravens. He was their offensive MVP last year. They have no one to fill the void. Cam Cameron, my reigning offensive co-ordinator of the year, will have his hands full again.

11. Don’t forget that the Bengals get Keith Rivers, the 9th pick of the 2008 draft, back from a broken jaw.

12. Eric Mangini continues to develop as the Villain amongst NFL coaches, and may even relish that role.

13. The Texans have a lot riding on Matt Schaub’s health. Their backups: Dan Orlovsky, Alex Brink, Rex Grossman.

14. The 2009 Colts will be an interesting case study on how much coaching affects a team.

15. Remember that Jason Jones, a rookie in 2008, had 3.5 sacks and 3 forced fumbles filling in for an injured Albert Haynesworth last year against Pittsburgh. Remember that everyone and their mom was on the Pittsburgh bandwagon for that game, which was for AFC homefield advantage, and the Titans pasted the Steelers. Remember that Tennessee was the best team of 2008, and would have been in good position to win a Super Bowl but for a fluky loss to the Ravens in which the Titans held a near 2:1 lead in yardage.

July Top 15

15. Bob Dylan - Just Like a Woman
14. Cake - Sheep Go To Heaven
13. Ryan Adams - Two
12. The Waifs - Goodbye
11. Ryan Adams - Oh My Sweet Carolina

10. Cake - End of the Movie
9. Katy Perry - Waking Up in Vegas
8. Jimmy Buffett - Fins
7. Green Day - 21st Century Breakdown
6. Jackson Browne - Running on Empty

5. Sublime - Date Rape
4. The Beatles - Yesterday
3. Cake - Palm of Your Hand
2. Green Day - 21 Guns

Song of the Month: Sublime - Doin' Time