Pet Peeve of the Week

People whose cell phones are always running out of batteries. Plug it in at night. Do it as you brush your teeth.

Week Three Picks

Also like:

Dolphins +6 over CHARGERS
Colts +3 over CARDINALS
Broncos -2.5 over RAIDERS
Falcons +4.5 over PATRIOTS
BENGALS +4 over Steelers
Panthers +8 over COWBOYS
RAVENS -13.5 over Browns
TEXANS -3.5 over Jaguars
Bears -2.5 over SEAHAWKS
BILLS +5.5 over Saints

If forced to choose:

BUCS +6.5 over Giants
VIKINGS -6.5 over Niners
Titans +2.5 over JETS
Redskins -6.5 over LIONS
Chiefs +7.5 over EAGLES
RAMS +6.5 over Packers

Lock season record: 0-0
Really like season record: 2-2
Also like season record: 6-7
If forced to choose season record: 6-9
All games season record: 14-18

Week Two Observations

1. Tons of holding penalties. Four calls for delay of game, including two in a row. No chemistry between the quarterback and receivers. Dropped passes. Wide-open guys missed. No touchdowns. This wasn’t the Oakland Raiders on Sunday – it was the Bill Belichick/Tom Brady New England Patriots.

2. Losing Wes Welker was a big blow. He is the oil that keeps the machine running. Julian Edelman showed flashes in a replacement role, but doesn’t have the chemistry with Brady that Welker does.

3. Another sneaky loss the Patriots have incurred is Jabar Gaffney, not the most talented guy on the field but a good fit for the team and reliable final option for Tom Brady. Joey Galloway may have better speed than Gaffney, but he and Brady are not on the same page right now.

4. This could be the worst year yet for Pats running backs in fantasy: Fred Taylor, Laurence Maroney, Kevin Faulk, and Sammy Morris are getting equal touches.

5. Let’s take a look at the New York Jets. They have completely shut down two offenses that were expected to be amongst the league’s best. This is how they are doing it:

• Kris Jenkins is a beastly nose tackle who makes it very difficult to run the ball inside.

• Darrelle Revis is taking the #1 wideout out of the game. Both Houston and New England rely heavily on their #1 WR. These are pass-first teams that are used to getting a lot of production from their receivers. But Revis is truly a “shutdown” corner. He can handle Andre Johnson and Randy Moss, and he can do it alone. How good is Revis? In a week when one player had five sacks and another had four, Revis is the Defensive MVP (for a second straight week).

• With Jenkins shutting down the run game and Revis eliminating the #1 WR, that forces teams to run the ball outside or throw the ball to secondary receivers. The Jets have very solid depth behind Revis, with Lito Sheppard, Dwight Lowery, and Donald Strickland. These are not D’Angelo Hall CBs that you can just throw on over and over. Perhaps most importantly, both the Texans (Kevin Walter) and Patriots (Wes Welker) were missing their #2 WRs against the Jets. Considering how often the Pats targeted rookie Julian Edelman, we can assume Welker would have had a big game had he been in the lineup.

• Since teams are having trouble running the ball, that allows Rex Ryan to unleash the wolfpack on opposing quarterbacks. Ryan is sending guys after the QB from all angles, frequently overloading sides of the line so there are too many guys to block. The single most important thing in NFL football is pressuring the quarterback, and Revis allows Ryan to do that as aggressively as he wants. Ryan had more front-seven talent last season with the Ravens, and he had Ed Reed picking up the loose change. This year he has Revis and a less-talented front seven. The result is a defense that causes fewer turnovers, but might actually be tougher to move the ball against.
  

6. This week the Jets will play a different sort of offense. Tennessee throws a lot of balls to tight ends and backs. The Titans like to run the ball, and feature the fastest outside runner in the league in Chris Johnson. Tennessee’s offense is not as explosive as that of New England or Houston, but theirs is more physical. Disrupting the precision of their offense will not completely shut the Titans down. This will be an interesting matchup.

7. On offense, the Jets are getting just enough out of Mark Sanchez and his receivers. The strength of the offense is obviously their run game. Sanchez & co. will not be explosive anytime soon, but they may not need to be.

8. The other key to all this is special teams. Leon Washington is routinely busting big returns, which keeps Sanchez out of trouble and gives New York’s mediocre offense a short field.

9. Kevin Kolb put up big numbers, but he is not a viable option for the Eagles right now.

10. Drew Brees just throws to the guy who is open. That is all he cares about.

11. ***Softball analogy of the week***
The other night, my men’s softball league team got annihilated by the best team in the league, 24-5 or something. Afterwards I was discussing the game with another player on our team, who thought we could beat that team two or three times out of ten. I said we would beat them less than one time in ten. The difference in athleticism between this team and our team was so vast, I think it would take a spectacular set of circumstances to keep us in the game.

The St. Louis Rams will have games like they did on Sunday against the Redskins where they will tell themselves afterwards they can hang with anyone. If Donnie Avery hadn’t fumbled in the red zone, maybe they could have won the game. If they had just made one more play on offense or defense. If they had caught a break in special teams…

The reality is that the Rams play every game with a sizable athletic disadvantage, and that is a hard thing to overcome in professional sports. The truth is they did catch many breaks against the Redskins, they had a good matchup, they got Washington at a good time, and they still lost. It is going to take a special set of circumstances for the Rams to win a game. Doing it on the road against a decent team is very unlikely.

12. The Redskins are not overflowing with good players on offense, yet their best guys are not always on the field. Five offensive linemen, Campbell, Portis, Sellers, Cooley, Moss, Randle-El. Those are your best players. Keep them in the game.

13. Normally wide receiver is one of the least important positions in football. But when you are talking about the Arizona Cardinals, the status of Larry Fitzgerald, Anquan Boldin, and Steve Breaston is paramount.

14. I said it last week and I’ll say it again: Stay cool, Beanie Wells fantasy owners. Your time will come.

15. Antrel Rolle looked totally incompetent returning punts for the Cards, though he did return this blocked kick for a touchdown. What the heck was up with this play? As Chris Myers said, "it was as if the play was in slow motion." Did this actually happen? Everyone, including Myers, was acting like the play didn't count. This could be the least enthusiastic play-by-play I've ever heard.



16. Jacksonville wideouts are not getting separation and David Garrard doesn’t like throwing the ball into tight spots. Troy Williamson is out for the season.

17. Jake Delhomme looked very good against the Falcons, throwing behind a fabulous offensive line. Everything we saw last year from this offense was there Sunday. The Panthers are going to slaughter the bad teams – their running game could be the best in the league if they get to use it.

18. But Carolina’s defense is betraying them. They are not doing anything well.

19. It may be impossible to stop the Falcons offense. There is nothing you can do against a team that can run the ball inside or outside, pass the ball inside or outside, short, medium, or deep. You just have to pray Matt Ryan misses – and he doesn’t much.

20. Atlanta’s defense, thought to be improved after a nice first game against the Dolphins, is not any good. Rookie first-round DT Peria Jerry is done for the season. With games looming against the Pats, Cowboys, Saints (twice), Panthers, Giants, and Eagles, the Falcons are going to get into a lot of shootouts.

21. Detroit ran the ball against the Vikings – not an easy task. Kevin Smith is routinely running for decent gains. But he is not breaking big ones. Wide receiver blocking could be the culprit.

22. Minnesota’s offensive line is not giving Brett Favre any time to throw. There’s a reason he isn’t going deep. Favre is playing very well considering the circumstances.

23. Percy Harvin is strong.

24. In the preseason, Green Bay’s offensive line looked fantastic. Preseason is preseason.

25. B.J. Raji’s health could be critical for the Pack this season.

26. Funny that Matt Schaub’s 40-point fantasy game came with him out of the lineup for most teams.

27. Bobby Wade – one team’s trash is another team’s treasure. Kansas City’s lineup looks like my refrigerator – some leftovers, some desperation options, something rotting, and very little sustenance.

28. Tampa Bay is not going to win games with Byron Leftwich throwing fifty passes to guys not named Antonio Bryant.

29. Buffalo’s offensive line has performed much better than expected – but RT Brad Butler and TE Derek Schouman were both lost for the season. Bad breaks for the Bills.

30. I don’t see how the Niners are going to score more than ten points in Minnesota this weekend. Praying Frank Gore takes it to the house is not a viable offense. You know who this team could use? What player would perfectly fit into their offense, gel with Shaun Hill, and give them some desperately-needed playmaking? Michael Crabtree.

31. Exciting things always seem to happen when Nate Clements is involved. The fifteen most exciting players in the NFL right now:

15. Josh Cribbs
14. Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie
13. Nate Clements
12. Leon Washington
11. Jay Cutler
10. Calvin Johnson
9. Michael Vick
8. Felix Jones
7. DeSean Jackson
6. Ed Reed
5. Ahmad Bradshaw
4. Steve Smith
3. Clifton Smith
2. Chris Johnson
1. Adrian Peterson

31. Goats of the week: Seattle S Jordan Babineaux and LB Aaron Curry.

32. This clip dramatically illustrates some recurring themes you will see throughout the NFL season. This is the most primal play I’ve seen in a while. It looks like something out of Planet Earth. The instincts of a predator.

• San Diego can’t run the football. They do not have strength in the offensive line.
• San Diego is going to get into a lot of shootouts. Their defense stinks but their quarterback is a sicko. They are the same team as the ’08 Saints.
• Jacob Hester is not a good NFL fullback.
• Dan Fouts is no longer serviceable in color commentary. It’s obvious he is not preparing for these games.
  

33. The thing about Jay Cutler is that he can singlehandedly win games. You always have a chance with Cutler. He will not put up huge numbers for the Bears but he will win games they have no business winning (like Sunday).

34. On a related note, great quarterbacks can beat the Pittsburgh defense. There aren’t many on the schedule though.

35. What to make of the Giants and Colts, whose run defenses were hideously gashed this weekend? We know these are not the same defenses without All-Pros Justin Tuck and Bob Sanders. We know that stopping the run is not as important as pressuring the quarterback. And we know that these teams are so good they can give up 200 yards on the ground and still beat solid teams on the road.

Defensive MVP of the Week: Darrelle Revis, New York Jets
Offensive MVP of the Week: Drew Brees, New Orleans
Defensive Breakout Player of the Week: Antwan Odom, Cincinnati
Offensive Breakout Player of the Week: Mario Manningham, New York Giants
Defensive Coordinator of the Week: Mike Pettine, New York Jets
Offensive Coordinator of the Week: Kyle Shanahan, Houston

Power Rankings (last week's rank in parentheses):

Definitely Bad
32. Cleveland (29)
31. St. Louis (31)
30. Kansas City (30)
29. Oakland (26)
28. Detroit (32)
27. Jacksonville (17)
26. Tampa Bay (24)
25. Seattle (19)

Not Sure Yet
24. Houston (25)
23. Arizona (28)
22. San Francisco (27)
21. Washington (14)
20. Buffalo (23)
19. Denver (20)
18. Miami (18)
17. Carolina (21)
16. Green Bay (12)

Definitely Decent
15. Chicago (15)
14. Tennessee (11)
13. San Diego (16)
12. Cincinnati (22)

Dangerous
11. New England (8)
10. Dallas (5)
9. Philadelphia (9)
8. Atlanta (10)
7. New York Jets (13)

Contenders
6. Minnesota (7)
5. Pittsburgh (6)
4. New Orleans (3)
3. Indianapolis (2)
2. Baltimore (4)
1. New York Giants (1)

My 100 Favorite Songs: #33

Bob Dylan - Tangled Up in Blue

Summer 2002: I was depressed about a girl and went on an epic backpacking trip with some friends in Wyoming's Wind River Range. Listening to Tangled Up in Blue made me realize how long life is.

Pet Peeve of the Week

Commercials in movie theatres before the previews.

Week Two Picks

Really like:

JAGUARS -3 over Cardinals
Colts -3 over DOLPHINS
REDSKINS -9.5 over Rams
Ravens +3 over CHARGERS

Also like:

Saints -1 over EAGLES
Seahawks +1.5 over NINERS
BRONCOS -3.5 over Browns
Giants +2.5 over COWBOYS
Bengals +9 over PACKERS
JETS +3.5 over Patriots
Steelers -2.5 over BEARS
Bucs +4.5 over BILLS
LIONS +10 over Vikings

If forced to choose:

Raiders +3 over CHIEFS
TITANS -6.5 over Texans
Panthers +6 over FALCONS

Lock season record: 0-0
Really like season record: 0-0
Also like season record: 1-3
If forced to choose season record: 5-7
All games season record: 6-10

Week One Observations

1. Willie Parker did not appear to have any burst against the Titans. Rashard Mendenhall is not competent enough in the passing game to be the every-down back. Mewelde Moore may end up seeing some this year after all.

2. Looks like Cortland Finnegan is still on his game.

3. Matt Ryan’s accuracy was off in game one – though he was more accurate than Jason Elam. It would be ironic if Ryan and Atlanta’s special teams betrayed them just as their defense came around.

4. The Tony Gonzalez Experiment may work out after all.

5. The other big free agent acquistion Atlanta made, LB Mike Peterson, may prove even more important.

6. Pat White missed on a touchdown bomb in one of his only appearances on the field. It was there. The trick plays the Dolphins ran worked pretty well on Sunday. Watch for White and more trickeration as the season continues. The Vanilla Pennington offense does not stretch the field enough to challenge good teams.

7. Brandon Stokley is a smart player. Last year when Brandon Marshall scored a go-ahead touchdown against the Browns, Stokley prevented Marshall from drawing an unsportsmanlike penalty for celebration late in a close game. You always need some smart players. The Broncos seem like a smart team this season.

8. Much of the credit for that goes to Brian Dawkins, who was a force against the Bengals.

9. Admit it – you forgot that Champ Bailey was on the Denver Broncos. Or you forgot that Bailey is one of the best defenders in football.

10. In his first game, rookie CB Alphonso Smith looked like he was worthy of Denver’s investment of a 2010 first-round pick.

11. I’ve been trying to talk myself into this for months, reminding myself of all the positives and possibilities while trying to ignore the unavoidable truth: Kyle Orton is the quarterback of my favorite team, the team I’ve been cheering for since I was five years old. Orton took a sack that knocked the Broncos out of field goal range in the fourth quarter while up by six points. This was a mistake that should have cost them the game.

12. Chad Ochocinco looks more explosive than he did last season.

13. Rey Maualuga and Keith Rivers looked great on Sunday. Maualuga could win Defensive Rookie of the Year.

14. The Colts are looking good. Peyton Manning made a couple mistakes on Sunday. That won’t be happening much the rest of the season, and these close wins will become blowouts.

15. Jacksonville’s receiving corps looks as bad or possibly even worse than last season.

16. Ugly debut for Eugene Monroe.

17. Cadillac Williams didn’t look good on Sunday. He looked great.

18. Rookie kickoff specialist David Buehler blasted three touchbacks for the Cowboys in Tampa.

19. Nice balance from Dallas in game one. It will be interesting to see if that continues. They will need all their weapons to beat the mighty Giants.

20. Michael Clayton showed off some nice hands against Dallas. You need good hands to handle those Byron bazookas.

21. Clifton Smith scares the crap out of everyone, including his own team and fans, when he touches the ball.

22. The Eagles did not miss Jim Johnson, Stewart Bradley, or Brian Dawkins in game one. The plan was aggressive and the ‘backers kicked ass.

23. DeAngelo Williams played really well against the Eagles.

24. Joe Flacco threw 43 passes against the Chiefs, completing 26 of them for 307 yards and 3 touchdowns. The Ravens are going to throw it a lot more this season, and they now have the ability to play from behind. But will they be a better team? The symbiosis between their offense and defense may lack the coherence it had last season. You get the feeling offensive coordinator Cam Cameron wants to show off a little bit, but that may not be the most effective way to win football games for Baltimore in ’09. This will be a fascinating team to watch.

25. Don’t be fooled by Kansas City’s run at the Ravens. There is very little to like about this team.

26. The media has just as good a chance at picking the Sleeper as anyone else, and might just have nailed it with the Jets. Mark Sanchez was not as good as his numbers would suggest, but deserves credit for playing well in his first start on the road. It will be interesting to see what Bill Belichick cooks up for the Jets this weekend.

27. Hard to evaluate the Redskins after week one. Going to the Meadowlands to play the Giants is a thankless task.

28. Taking handoffs, Ahmad Bradshaw is one of the five best running backs in the NFL. His composite speed, power, and moves are exceptional. His problems arise in blocking and pass-catching.

29. The Niners have had a little success in September the last few years, stealing some ugly games. Don’t be fooled. They may have the worst offense in the league.

30. Stay calm, Beanie Wells fantasy owners. He’ll be the one getting the carries before the season is over.

31. Kurt Warner was a checkdown machine on Sunday. When he wasn’t dumping the ball off, he was misfiring.

32. Welcome to Chicago, Mr. Cutler! Don’t worry, Mike Shanahan will arrive soon.

33. Green Bay’s front seven is looking good. This wasn’t a matter of changing to a 3-4 as much as it was adding and returning talent.

34. You could see Tom Brady working his way back into it the longer that game against the Bills progressed. He will get better and better as the season progresses, as will the Pats.

35. The Monday Night crew did a nice job notifying us the Patriots were double-teaming Terrell Owens and Lee Evans, so the Bills had to go underneath. Trent Edwards took what he could get and wound up with a 114.1 quarterback rating.

36. Much was made of Leodis McKelvin’s decision to return the fateful kickoff near the end of the game against the Patriots. It was the right decision to bring it out. When he caught the ball, there was 2:06 on the clock. If he can get it down to the two minute warning, it costs the Patriots a timeout.

37. Looking at the Oakland/San Diego game comparing the teams position by position you get:

Offensive line: Advantage Oakland
Running backs: Advantage Oakland
Tight ends: Push
Wide receivers: Big advantage San Diego
Quarterback: Huge advantage San Diego
Defensive line: Big advantage Oakland
Linebackers: Advantage Oakland
Cornerbacks: Advantage Oakland
Safeties: Slight Advantage Oakland
Coaching: Slight Advantage San Diego

38. Oakland outplayed San Diego up and down the roster, except for the quarterback position. Quarterback is just so much more important than any other position. And Oakland doesn’t have a quarterback. They cannot be good until they have a quarterback. Can you win games with JaMarcus Russell? Not many.

39. ***Softball analogy of the week*** When the pitcher is operating efficiently, throwing strikes and playing quickly, players field better. Everyone is locked in, focused, sharp. When the pitcher is missing badly and serving up walks, the fielders lose their focus. Getting the ball hit in your direction happens less often and comes with more pressure. As a result, more balls get booted. You see this same phenomenon in the NFL, where teams with inaccurate quarterbacks like the '08 Browns or '09 Raiders drop a lot of balls. They are out of rhythm.

40. San Diego looks like the same team as last year. Both lines look like they need to hit the weight room. LaDainian Tomlinson is injured and/or ineffective. You don’t see any creative defensive packages. Shawne Merriman is nonexistent. The team appears uninspired. It’s all on Philip Rivers – and he’s happy to deliver. He could put up gargantuan numbers if LT and the defense continue to struggle.

41. In Monday Night’s highly anticipated battle royale of punters, San Diego’s Mike Scifres trumped Oakland’s Shane Lechler. But Donnie Jones of the Rams is emerging as the Juan Martin del Potro to their Nadal/Federer.

Defensive MVP of the week: Darrelle Revis, New York Jets
Offensive MVP of the week: Drew Brees, New Orleans
Defensive breakout player of the week: Phillip Merling, Miami
Offensive breakout player of the week: Cadillac Williams, Tampa Bay
Defensive coordinator of the week: Mike Nolan, Denver
Offensive coordinator of the week: Alex Van Pelt, Buffalo

Power Rankings (preseason rank in parentheses):

32. Detroit (26)
31. St. Louis (28)
30. Kansas City (30)
29. Cleveland (16)
28. Arizona (23)
27. San Francisco (31)
26. Oakland (32)
25. Houston (21)
24. Tampa Bay (24)
23. Buffalo (29)
22. Cincinnati (27)
21. Carolina (19)
20. Denver (15)
19. Seattle (22)
18. Miami (14)
17. Jacksonville (13)
16. San Diego (10)
15. Chicago (8)
14. Washington (17)
13. New York Jets (25)
12. Green Bay (4)
11. Tennessee (12)
10. Atlanta (20)
9. Philadelphia (18)
8. New England (1)
7. Minnesota (9)
6. Pittsburgh (7)
5. Dallas (6)
4. Baltimore (11)
3. New Orleans (5)
2. Indianapolis (2)
1. New York Giants (3)