Announcement

In 2010 I am going to write a book. The subject of this book will be revealed in a blog later this month.

November Top 15

15. The Black Keys - Your Touch
14. Ray LaMontagne - Jolene
13. Johnny Clegg & Savuka - Third World Child
12. Empire of the Sun - Walking On A Dream
11. Alice in Chains - Black Gives Way To Blue

10. George Michael - Faith
9. Brandi Carlile - Dreams
8. Alice in Chains - Your Decision
7. Mark Knopfler - Border Reiver
6. Meese - Next In Line

5. Ray LaMontagne - Hold You In My Arms
4. Muse - Uprising
3. The Avett Brothers - I And Love And You
2. Ray LaMontagne - Trouble

Song of the Month: The Chi-Lites - Have You Seen Her?

Week Twelve Picks

Also like:

Dolphins -3.5 over BILLS
BRONCOS +6.5 over Giants $
SAINTS -1 over Patriots
RAMS +4 over Seahawks

If forced to choose:

Redskins +9.5 over EAGLES
Bears +10.5 over VIKINGS
LIONS +11 over Packers X
FALCONS -11.5 over Bucs
TEXANS +3 over Colts
TITANS -3 over Cardinals
BENGALS -13.5 over Browns
Chiefs +13.5 over CHARGERS
Panthers +3.5 over JETS
Steelers +9 over RAVENS
Raiders +13.5 over COWBOYS X
NINERS -3 over Jaguars

Three Team Teaser of the Week:

Redskins +19 over EAGLES plus FALCONS -1.5 over Bucs plus Bears +20.5 over VIKINGS

Lock season record: 1-0
Really like season record: 3-8
Also like season record: 29-32
If forced to choose season record: 40-46-1
Teaser season record: 2-4
All games season record: 73-86-1

Week Eleven Observations

1. All season, Ricky Williams has been one of the best backs in the league. We were watching the game and some commentator said "he needs to play like the 2002 Ricky Williams tonight" and someone I was with said "he needs to play like the 2009 Ricky Williams tonight." Ricky could be the #1 player in fantasy over the second half of the season.

2. Atlanta's Eric Weems is overdue to take one to the house on a return.

3. I was dumbfounded to see Jason Elam miss another field goal for the Falcons this week. I wasn't surprised that he missed, just flabbergasted that he was still on the team.

4. Ahmad Bradshaw looks like a guy trying to run on a broken foot.

5. Matthew Stafford showed why he was the #1 pick in April's draft on Sunday. I'm not talking about heart or tenacity but rather his arm and amazing ability to launch rockets downfield without a clean dropback. He made a couple throws in that game that only three or four people on the planet can make.

6. Even knowing Eric Mangini is one of the worst coaches in the league, I was still completely taken aback by some of the decisions he made late in Sunday's game against the Lions. The first came after the Browns scored a touchdown with 5:44 left to take a 35-31 lead. The Mangenius decided to go for two here. I don't understand this at all, as a six point lead is hardly better than a five point lead but a five point lead is significantly better than a four point lead as it would allow the Browns to tie the game with a field goal if Detroit scored a touchdown. Mangini's other curious decisions are broken down here.

7. I was stunned to see Brady Quinn bombing the ball down the field with accuracy and confidence, even if it was against a college-level defense. I was ready to close the book on Quinn but maybe there is still hope for the former Notre Damer.

8. Redskins ball, second and one from the 20, 21 seconds left in the first half. Jason Campbell throws the ball away milliseconds before running out of bounds for minus five yards, then the 'Skins take a delay of game penalty, then they decide to kick a 48-yard field goal on 3rd and 11 with 15 seconds left...then the Campbell play is reviewed and confirmed, then the delay of game penalty is reversed, then the Skins attempt a 39-yarder with the same 15 seconds left (out of timeouts)....and Shaun Suisham hooks it left.

9. The Vikings are very dangerous in the red zone with Brett Favre firing BBs at Visanthe Shiancoe, Sidney Rice, and Percy Harvin.

10. Screens and checkdowns to Justin Forsett didn't help the Seahawks beat the Vikings, but they did push me over the top in a critical late-season fantasy matchup.

11. At this point it seems doubtful the Pack can fix their coverage teams. Obviously they know they have a problem there and must be working hard to correct it, but it's not happening.

12. Donald Driver is the kind of guy you want on your NFL team, your fantasy team, your pickup team, and just maybe, your '09-'10 NFC Pro Bowl team.

13. Sadly, inevitably, Ray Lewis's career is coming to an end.

14. For some reason, legacy I guess, CBS is giving Greg Gumbel and Dan Dierdorf their #2 game of the week. These guys are murdering the games. Colts 17, Ravens 15 could have been a classic in the right hands.

15. CBS's Dick Enberg, normally one of the best, was terrible Sunday in Denver. He has no chemistry with Dan Fouts, who is always a train wreck in the booth.

16. Another CBS play-by-play man, Kevin Harlan, is absolutely obsessed with calling out blocks on every play. It's a unique and hilarious style. Check it out the next time you watch a Harlan game. This has drinking game potential.

17. New Buffalo coach Perry Fewell cost his team forty seconds of clock failing to call a timeout late in a close game vs the Jaguars.

18. It seems to me the Saints have two general game plans on offense. The first is the classic aggressive offense with Drew Brees chucking bombs to Devery Henderson and Robert Meachem, mid-range throws to Marques Colston, and Reggie Bush screens. The second is a more conservative approach featuring a heavy dose of Pierre Thomas and Mike Bell running the ball inside with Brees taking shorter drops and throwing higher percentage passes. They have used the latter strategy against the bad teams like the Bills and Bucs to grind out simple low-variance wins. I imagine we will see the aerial assault Monday night.

19. The stunning losses of the Steelers and Bengals were flukes more than anything else. I still expect both teams as well as the Ravens to make the playoffs out of the AFC North. In fact, I just bet the Ravens at 50-1 to win the Super Bowl.

20. Watching the Pats dismantle the Jets on Sunday, it was hard to believe the Pats actually lost to them earlier this season. No team has improved as much as New England since that Week 2 matchup and no team has regressed further than the Jets.

21. Suddenly Mark Sanchez is making a run at LVP. I thought JaMarcus Russell had that one wrapped up.

22. Bill Belichick was up to his old tricks at the end of that game, ordering up bombs to Wes Welker with a seventeen point lead with forty seconds left.

23. Tom Brady's '09 continues to eerily resemble Peyton Manning's '08. Brady is basically back to his '07 form and the Patriots are damn close. The epic Monday night showdown pits the team generally accepted to be the NFL's best (New Orleans) against the team Vegas considers the best (New England).

24. Although I love the Broncos and root for them to win every game, I think I am pretty unbiased evaluating the teams. There is one exception, however: the San Diego Chargers. I despise the Chargers. I'm sick of LaDainian Tomlinson. I hate Philip Rivers. I hate Shawne Merriman more. I scoff at Norv Turner. This, week 11, was the first time all season I started to give the Chargers any credit for playing good football. As much as I hate to admit it, they have a good team. There isn't anything they're above average at other than throwing the ball and special teams, but they are so good at those two things that they should make the playoffs and may endanger the seasons of superior teams once there.

25. The Chargers now appear to be a better team than the Broncos and outplayed them Sunday, but 32-3 was not an accurate reflection of what happened at Invesco that afternoon. 28-20 would have been more indicative.

26. Bruce Gradkowski is not suitable to start in the NFL, but he plays with a lot more courage and passion than JaMarcus Russell and gives the Raiders a better chance to win.

27. There was a touching moment Sunday night when Donovan McNabb found Jay Cutler and drew him close to say some things after the game, which Cutler had just choked away for the Bears. McNabb has lost his fair share of games over the years for the Eagles and consistently drawn heat from the media and fans. Both players are consistently inconsistent, constantly winning games their teams should lose and blowing games they should win. Both are mobile, fearless, and strong-armed. McNabb has reached a point in his career where he seems immune to the criticism. He has the thickest skin in the league. I expect the same career path for Cutler.

28. I thought Vince Young taking over for Kerry Collins was nothing more than a desperate move from a desperate team, but Young is really playing well right now. His accuracy is improved and his third down scrambles are backbreaking.

29. Running the option is rarely a good idea in the NFL, but then, few teams have Vince Young and Chris Johnson to execute it.

Thanksgiving Picks:

Also like:
BRONCOS +6.5 over Giants

If forced to choose:

LIONS +11 over Packers
Raiders +13.5 over COWBOYS

Goat of the Week: Andre Caldwell, Cincinnati
Defensive Coordinator of the Week: Leslie Frazier, Minnesota
Offensive Coordinator of the Week: Scott Linehan, Detroit
Defensive Breakout Player of the Week: Andy Studebaker, Kansas City
Offensive Breakout Player of the Week: Tom Santi, Indianapolis
Defensive MVP of the Week: Cullen Jenkins, Green Bay
Offensive MVP of the Week: Brett Favre, Minnesota

Power Rankings:

32. Cleveland (32)
31. Tampa Bay (28)
30. Detroit (29)
29. Kansas City (30)
28. Oakland (31)
27. St. Louis (26)
26. Buffalo (27)
25. Seattle (24)
24. New York Jets (21)
23. Carolina (20)
22. Chicago (25)
21. Jacksonville (22)
20. Washington (23)
19. San Francisco (19)
18. Atlanta (16)
17. Houston (15)
16. Miami (18)
15. Tennessee (17)
14. Denver (14)
13. Philadelphia (12)
12. New York Giants (10)
11. Arizona (9)
10. Green Bay (11)
9. Dallas (8)
8. San Diego (13)
7. Baltimore (7)
6. Cincinnati (6)
5. Pittsburgh (5)
4. New England (4)
3. Minnesota (3)
2. Indianapolis (2)
1. New Orleans (1)

My 100 Favorite Songs: #26

Iggy Pop - The Passenger



The late Michael Hutchence of INXS came up with this incredible cover.

My 100 Favorite Songs: #27

Steve Miller Band - Jet Airliner



Originally written by Paul Pena, "Jet Airliner" is best in its extended version and preceded by "Threshold".

This was the defining song of my first year as a professional poker player.

Goodbye to all my friends at home
Goodbye to people I’ve trusted
I’ve got to go out and make my way
I might get rich you know I might get busted
But my heart keeps calling me backwards
As I get on the 707
Riding high I got tears in my eyes
You know you got to go through hell
Before you get to heaven

Week Ten Observations

1. Mike Shanahan to Chicago at the end of the season just makes too much sense for everyone involved, except Lovie Smith has a gigantic long-term contract that would cost the Bears to renege upon.

2. Jay Cutler plus a bad offensive line plus Ron Turner plus a n00bish corps of receivers = the most interceptions in the league.

3. I said last week the Bears would be one of the worst teams in the league if their quarterback was Kyle Orton instead of Jay Cutler, but you'd have to think Kyle Orton would have beaten the Niners last Thursday night. Either way the Bears are a bottom ten ballclub right now.

4. During the draft, the Broncos traded a 2010 first round pick for the opportunity to draft Alphonso Smith. It was assumed the Broncos could have traded either their own 2010 first rounder or Chicago's, which they had the rights to thanks to the Jay Cutler trade. The decision to use their own pick is looking wise.

5. Minnesota had 302 yards of offense in the first half against Detroit.

6. Percy Harvin is a truly incredible athlete, sort of like a taller Maurice Jones-Drew but at WR. His strength/speed/balance combination is dumbfounding.

7. Detroit's offense has regressed significantly since the early part of the season. The injuries to Matt Stafford, Calvin Johnson, and Kevin Smith disrupted their chemistry. Johnson, in particular, is not the same player.

8. Is it just me or are field goal kickers getting worse? I should look into the numbers.

9. The defense of the New York Jets is in shambles. Their defensive line is porous. The loss of Kris Jenkins was arguably the most devastating injury of the season to any one team. In a week or two I'll compile the list of the season's most significant injuries.

10. ***Guest Observation of the Week***
This week's observation comes from NFL diehard and fantasy football rival David Hoedeman. Hoedy has an interesting theory on how to improve Buffalo's sucktastic offense. For the record, I am in total concordance with him on this one.

“When you're losing, everyone's looking for answers.” - Ryan Fitzpatrick in a Tuesday press conference after being named the Buffalo Bills starting QB for Sunday's game against the Jacksonville Jaguars.

Sage words from Fitzpatrick. We should expect nothing less from a Harvard grad. Of course, if he were actually that bright, he would know that if the question is, “Who should start at quarterback for my NFL football team?” the answer will never, ever be, “Ryan Fitzpatrick.”

Here's how I imagine the conversation between Fitzpatrick and new Bills head coach Perry Fewell transpired this week:

Coach Fewell: Ry Guy, we need to get some wins here. My ass is on the line. I've got to make a move here. Assert myself as the leader of this team. You're my guy against the Jags on Sunday.

Fitzpatrick: You are aware that our offense averages a meager 4.4 yards every time I drop back to pass this year, yes?

Coach: Hell good for you, son. That's almost half as many yards as that Manning guy, and he's damn good.

Fitz: That's actually the worst number in the entire league. Worse than any starter or backup on any team. Heck even Brady Quinn averages 4.7 yards per attempt, and he doesn't have a single NFL-caliber receiver on his team. Look Coach, I'm a competitive guy. I'm happy for the opportunity and I'll do my best, but I may well be the least talented quarterback on any NFL roster. Don’t say I didn’t warn you.

Coach: Well you're still my guy. That's the kind of tough decision a new head coach has to make. I've got balls, son. Don't you forget it.

Fitz: I'm completing less than 50% of my passes.

Coach: You got guts, kid.

Fitz: I was 2/7 in my cameo against Tennessee last week.

Coach: We need a spark.

Fitz: For 6 yards.

Coach: Go get ‘em son.

This is where the hapless, frustrated and frustrating Bills find themselves. Fresh off a midseason coaching change that followed a last-minute preseason offensive coordinator change—resulting in the 29th ranked offense in the NFL—Buffalo is attempting to turn things around by turning to 7th round draft pick and perennial journeyman bum Ryan Fitzpatrick.

If Fewell really had balls, if he really wanted to shake things up in a way that might actually improve the Bills atrocious offense, attract some attention and reinvigorate a passionate-yet-disenchanted fan base, then the Bills starting quarterback on Sunday would be running back Fred “Action” Jackson.*

This is not an overreaction to Jackson's one nice touchdown pass to Lee Evans in last week’s Titans game. I'm not calling for Jackson to start throwing the ball all over the field, nor do I think he should take every offensive snap at quarterback. But I absolutely think the Bills could improve on their 4.6 yards/play average if they became the first team to utilize the Wildcat as their primary offensive formation, bringing in Edwards (never ever Fitzpatrick… ever) as a change of pace about 30-40% of the time.

The reasoning for the birth of the Wildcat in Miami was simple: “We have two electric backs. Let’s get them on the field at the same time.”

The Bills can relate.

Fred Jackson is one of the most dynamic open-field runners in the league. Marshawn Lynch has a devastating combination of speed and power and the ability to be one of the league’s best all around backs. With T.O. and Lee Evans on the outside, along with the as-yet-unproductive-but-always-dangerous Roscoe Parish, the weapons are there.

What is not there is quarterback play and offensive line play.

The best way to minimize these inadequacies is to maximize the impact of their skill players.

Both Jackson and Lynch should absolutely be on the field at all times. With Jackson a threat to throw (okay so he’s only thrown one pass, but it was a really nice toss) if the defense gets too aggressive, and with misdirection coming from every angle (motion, fakes, play-action, end-arounds) to slow down opposing defenses and help out the Bills blockers, the offense would be difficult to stop, or at the very least average at least 4.7 yards per play. Which would be an improvement.

And if it doesn’t work?

They tried.

Perry Fewell would show he has some balls. The media would have a new Wildcat darling following the formation’s tragic demise in Miami on the heels of Ronnie Brown’s season-ending injury. And those poor desperate Buffalo Bills fans searching for answers would have something to get excited about, a reason to go to the stadium on Sundays.

I fail to see how even this worst-case scenario is not 400 times better than finishing the season with Ryan Fitzpatrick manning an offense that will be rivaled by only Cleveland and Oakland for utter futility.

Well, unless Cleveland and Oakland turn their offenses over to Joshua Cribbs and Darren McFadden.

Fitzpatrick gets it. He went to Harvard.

“The situation isn’t about a lack of talent. We’ve got guys on the outside, we’ve got the backs. We have the right guys to do it. It’s just a matter of getting them the ball,” he said in that same press conference. I didn’t watch the whole thing, but I’ll assume he added something along the lines of, “I’m just the worst possible guy for that job.”

*Though Fred has some competition for the official ‘Action Jackson’ nickname in the NFL, I feel his involvement in the Wild Cat gives him an edge over DeSean “Mr. Big Play” Jackson, Vincent “Touchdown” Jackson and Steven “Savage Warrior/Beast/Killer/Monster/Bulldog” Jackson.

11. Before his injury, Kyle Orton nailed Brandon Marshall on two easy touchdown bombs - the first real deep passes Denver has completed this season. But Orton also missed Eddie Royal on another easy bomb and ultimately that was one of many mistakes that cost the Broncos the game.

12. Before the season started, there was a lot of derisive talk about how old Denver's secondary was. The tune changed once it became apparent the Broncos had the best secondary in the league, but as the season progresses the mileage is starting to become apparent.

13. It's unfortunate Michael Turner sprained his ankle just as he was peaking. It's very unfortunate for my fantasy team, which was also peaking. But Atlanta's running game shouldn't take much of a hit. Jason Snelling is a more than serviceable replacement and Jerious Norwood is on his way back from a hip flexor. Atlanta's problems are their defense, special teams, and quarterback.

14. How many times do we have to watch Matt Ryan throw the ball away on that horrible roll-out to the right before Mike Mularkey stops calling that play?

15. Another play I am tired of watching is the deep ball to Ted Ginn. It's growing reminiscent of Braylon Edwards '08, except the ball just slips through Ginn's hands instead of bouncing off them like it does with Braylon. Like we saw with the Browns in '08, Ginn's inability to catch the deep ball is crippling the offense.

16. Connor Barth appears to have solved Tampa's placekicking problem.

17. I know Cincinnati swept Pittsburgh and has a better record, but I still think the Steelers are a slightly better team.

18. It's hard to do much against Cincy's D. They have arguably the best tandem of corners in the league with Jonathan Joseph and Leon Hall. Jonathan Fanene has stepped up in Antwan Odom's absence, their young linebackers are playing well, and Mike Zimmer is outscheming everyone. Zimmer has overtaken Mike Nolan and Gregg Williams in the defensive coordinator of the year race and should be a hot head coaching prospect after the season.

19. I've seen some ugly games this season. The worst was Cleveland at Buffalo, but Kansas City at Oakland came close. No one deserved to win that game. It was bad on offense, bad on defense, bad on special teams and poorly coached. Normally Dantrell Savage would win the Goat of the Week award for his terrible play but Darrius Heyward-Bey would not be denied this week.

20. Matt Hasselbeck and TJ Houshmandzadeh are finally developing some chemistry.

21. Remember when Housh played for the Bengals? I thought his loss was supposed to hurt them.

22. Arizona's vaunted rush defense disappeared the last two weeks, this week against the likes of Justin Forsett and Louis Rankin.

23. Despite running the ball well, Seattle called two pass plays on the one yard line in a tie game which they failed to convert.

24. Dallas couldn't even get enough protection to run screen plays against the Pack. They kept calling screens and Romo kept having to throw it away.

25. The overrated Asante Samuel keeps getting burned.

26. The other day I was watching a classic Patriots/Colts game on the NFL Network, the game in which the Pats stuffed the Colts four times from the 1 yard-line with the game on the line. Right before that goal line stand, as Peyton Manning was running the Colts down the field in a blistering 2-minute drill, Willie McGinest went down with a mysterious injury. It resembled a soccer injury - McGinest writhing theatrically on the ground, consuming time. But two plays later McGinest was back on the field, and on fourth down he made the game-winning tackle and then sprinted down the field in jubilant celebration. I mention this because Sunday night in a similar situation with Manning carving up the defense in the no-huddle, a Patriot defender went down with a mysterious injury. The crowd booed and Cris Collinsworth made note of it.

27. My take on the controversial Belichick decision: it was the wrong choice, but only because of the psychological repercussions. From a pure strategical perspective, it was very close. The real mistake was the pass call on third down. A running play on third down made more sense for many reasons.

28. Could Brady Quinn be worse than JaMarcus Russell? These two are the Ryan Leaf/Akili Smith of their generation.

Goat of the Week: Darrius Heyward-Bey, Oakland
Defensive Breakout Player of the Week: Quincy Black, Tampa Bay
Offensive Breakout Player of the Week: Brandon Gibson, St. Louis
Defensive Coordinator of the Week: Dom Capers, Green Bay
Offensive Coordinator of the Week: Clarence Shelmon, San Diego
Defensive MVP of the Week: Charles Woodson, Green Bay
Offensive MVP of the Week: Maurice Jones-Drew, Jacksonville

32. Cleveland (32)
31. Oakland (31)
30. Kansas City (30)
29. Detroit (29)
28. Tampa Bay (27)
27. Buffalo (26)
26. St. Louis (28)
25. Chicago (22)
24. Seattle (23)
23. Washington (25)
22. Jacksonville (24)
21. New York Jets (17)
20. Carolina (21)
19. San Francisco (19)
18. Miami (16)
17. Tennessee (20)
16. Atlanta (14)
15. Houston (15)
14. Denver (9)
13. San Diego (18)
12. Philadelphia (10)
11. Green Bay (13)
10. New York Giants (12)
9. Arizona (11)
8. Dallas (8)
7. Baltimore (7)
6. Cincinnati (6)
5. Pittsburgh (2)
4. New England (5)
3. Minnesota (4)
2. Indianapolis (3)
1. New Orleans (1)