Really like: PACKERS -3 over Vikings Jaguars +3 over TITANS
Also like: Texans -3.5 over BILLS RAVENS -3.5 over Broncos
If forced to choose: COLTS -12.5 over Niners BEARS -13 over Browns LIONS -4 over Rams EAGLES +1 over Giants Falcons +10.5 over SAINTS Raiders +16.5 over CHARGERS Panthers +10 over CARDINALS COWBOYS -9.5 over Seahawks Dolphins +3.5 over JETS
Three Team Teaser of the Week: EAGLES +11 plus COLTS -2 plus Jaguars +13
Lock season record: 0-0 Really like season record: 3-3 Also like season record: 20-26 If forced to choose season record: 20-30-1 Teaser season record: 0-2 All games season record: 43-59-1
1. There are some things I observe every week. Here are some things we will just assume the rest of the way, givens that don't need to be mentioned from here on out:
Peyton Manning is ridiculously good
JaMarcus Russell is ridiculously bad
Drew Brees never misses a throw in the Superdome
Reggie Bush is a wuss
Steven Jackson runs hard
Kyle Orton and Shaun Hill live to throw the ball away
Marc Bulger struggles with pressure
Donovan McNabb is inconsistent
Buffalo's offensive design is horrendous
Cleveland has no talent on offense
Brandon Marshall and Percy Harvin are tough to bring down
Seattle plays much better at home
LaDainian Tomlinson is over the hill
Philip Rivers to Vincent Jackson is unstoppable
2. Derek Anderson has the toughest job in the NFL. Situation plays such a huge role in a quarterback’s success, or really any player’s. Look at Anderson in ’07. Look at Kurt Warner’s career. Look at Kyle Orton.
3. The Browns do not have much of a running game, but they should be using it more. Their pass attack is a joke. The Mangenius has always passed too much. Could he be fired within his first 365 days? What a terrible hire.
4. Green Bay, surprisingly, ranks second in the NFL in yards allowed per game. Schedule is part of it.
5. Tampa Bay is this year's version of the '08 Detroit Lions. They are deceptively bad. Their defense is really quite atrocious. Their offensive design is pitiful. They have a little bit of talent on O, just as Detroit did last season, but negative plays and turnovers kill them. They are always patching leaks and springing new ones.
6. The chances of Josh Freeman helping the Bucs more than Josh Johnson are not good. This is a Fitzpatrick/Edwards situation. The offensive design is so hideous, no quarterback could win for the Bucs.
7. Well, maybe Peyton Manning. This could be the best anyone has ever played quarterback.
8. Man, Ricky Williams looks spry. He could be a top 10 running back right now. Williams is old for a back, but he doesn't have the mileage
9. Miami's offense now has everything but a #1 WR. Drops and poor efforts on jump balls are killing them.
10. So is bad tackling in the secondary.
11. Jairus Byrd is the leading contender for Defensive Rookie of the Year, with five interceptions in the last three games. Byrd can play, but most of his picks have been gifts from Mark Sanchez and Jake Delhomme.
12. Jay Cutler gets the blame, but if you look at Chicago’s roster, there isn’t much talent to give him and Forte a fighting chance. I laugh hearing this argument the Bears would be better off with Kyle Orton. There isn’t much coaching either. This is a team with serious long-term problems, and they don’t have a first or second round draft pick in next year’s draft. Superstar Coach X will have his hands full in 2010.
13. Best performance from Carson Palmer in years – maybe the best game he’s ever played.
14. It all starts with the offensive line, which was stunningly dominant for the Bengals on Sunday. When the line plays like that, the Bengals are very hard to stop.
15. The Bengals appear to be an emotional, high-variance team capable of playing great football or wetting the bed. Psychology is paramount in evaluating this team week-to-week.
16. Cedric Benson – legitimately good. His style is unique in today’s game. No one runs with more patience than Cedric Benson. To think I passed twice on Benson in the fantasy draft in favor of Lee Evans and Eddie Royal, who have seen the ball fewer times this season than Benson saw it in one game against the Bears.
17. On the other side of the coin there is Michael Turner, who has turned into Jamal Lewis. This guy was one of the best last season, he really was. And now he stinks. He’s below average for a starting running back. Football Outsiders crapped the bed on most of their preseason predictions, but the "Curse of 370" theory continues to build steam.
18. Jason Snelling, on the other hand, looks like the ’08 Michael Turner. Much like Darren Sproles was better than LaDainian Tomlinson last year, Snelling is now better than Turner.
19. I’ve had it in the back of my mind for almost a year that Matt Ryan is overrated. It seems he goes into each play knowing where he’s going to throw the ball, and then executes that like a robot. If things break down, if the defense confuses him, if his guy isn’t open, he throws the ball away or jams it into double coverage. He is not an improvisational quarterback. Stick Ryan on a bad offense and I’m not sure they move the ball. This season he doesn’t appear to be any better than last. It seems he looks for Tony Gonzalez a little too stringently. It all goes back to the running game though. Turner isn’t scaring anyone right now, the Falcons can’t rely on the run, defenses cheat back, and thus Atlanta’s offense lacks consistency.
20. The other Football Outsiders prediction that has come through is Miles Austin, their #1 “prospect” for 2009. His gait is gorgeously smooth for a big guy.
21. I keep trying to defend Tony Romo, who possesses the 5th best passer rating in NFL history. As I said before the season, Romo is the only quarterback in the league who makes plays and throws accurately. Romo’s weakness is pressure. As usual, Mike “Old Whitey” Smith forgot to blitz.
22. Strong also-rans for the weekly awards: Niners Michael Crabtree and Alex Smith for Offensive Breakout Player of the Week, Adrian Wilson, Darrelle Revis, and Brandon Meriweather for Defensive MVP of the Week.
23. Gambling mistake of the week: Underrating Arizona’s run defense and defense in general. The Cardinals comfortably lead the league in rush yards allowed and yards per rush.
24. The Cards are thwarting the Super Bowl Hangover through evolution. Nice job by Ken Whisenhunt, who didn’t try to mimic last season’s lightning-in-a-bottle ethos. Whisenhunt joins a crowded Coach of the Year conversation.
25. I told you to hang in there, Beanie Wells fantasy owners. It’s only going to get better.
26. You can blame Jason Campbell. You can blame Washington’s wide receivers. You can blame Jim Zorn. You can say Clinton Portis is running out of gas (which he is). You can blame bingo/play caller Sherman Lewis. But the biggest reason Washington stinks on offense is their line. It is godawful. They do nothing well. They have a great coach in Joe Bugel, so you know it is the talent. These guys suck. You can only get away with a shaky line if you have a top-flight quarterback like Brees, Warner, Rodgers, or Roethlisberger AND stud WRs AND great scheme; Washington has none of those things. Not only that but their offensive line could be the worst in the league with Chris Samuels out. Stephon Heyer looked dreadful in Samuels’ stead.
27. Senseless coaching trend of the season – no one is attempting field goals longer than fifty yards. What’s going on here? I thought a fifty-three yarder was no big deal in this league. Teams are just automatically punting rather than attempting long field goals. I miss Lane Kiffin, who called for this ludicrous 76-yard attempt shortly before (precipitating?) his firing last season.
28. Andy Reid threw the ball twice in his own red zone with a 17 point lead and less than five minutes left on Monday night. Passing in that situation should never enter your mind. The game is over if you do nothing but run the ball the rest of the way, but passing opens the slightest crack of opportunity for the opponent. Andy Reid has a disease. The man calls pass plays like he has a quota. I really cannot believe how bad some of these coaches are at game management.
29. Need to settle a bet – does anyone know if there is a difference in the balls used in college vs. the balls used in the NFL? And if so, what is that difference?
Defensive MVP of the Week: Will Witherspoon, Philadelphia Offensive MVP of the Week: Carson Palmer, Cincinnati Defensive Breakout Player of the Week: Alan Branch, Arizona Offensive Breakout Player of the Week: Jason Snelling, Atlanta Defensive Coordinator of the Week: Mike Zimmer, Cincinnati Offensive Coordinator of the Week: Bob Bratkowski, Cincinnati
32. Cleveland (32) 31. Oakland (31) 30. Kansas City (30) 29. Tampa Bay (29) 28. St. Louis (27) 27. Buffalo (28) 26. Washington (26) 25. Tennessee (25) 24. Carolina (24) 23. Detroit (23) 22. Jacksonville (22) 21. Seattle (21) 20. San Diego (20) 19. San Francisco (16) 18. Houston (19) 17. New York Jets (18) 16. Chicago (12) 15. Miami (14) 14. Atlanta (9) 13. Dallas (15) 12. Arizona (17) 11. Philadelphia (10) 10. Green Bay (13) 9. Cincinnati (11) 8. Baltimore (8) 7. Denver (7) 6. New England (6) 5. New York Giants (3) 4. Minnesota (5) 3. Pittsburgh (4) 2. New Orleans (2) 1. Indianapolis (1)
DOLPHINS +6 over Saints Jets -6 over RAIDERS GIANTS -7 over Cardinals Falcons +4.5 over COWBOYS BENGALS -1 over Bears
If forced to choose:
Eagles -7 over REDSKINS TEXANS -3 over Niners Colts -13.5 over RAMS CHIEFS +4.5 over Chargers Bucs +14.5 over PATRIOTS Vikings +5.5 over STEELERS Packers -9 over BROWNS PANTHERS -7 over Bills
Three Team Teaser of the Week: Vikings +15.5 plus DOLPHINS +16 plus Falcons +14.5
Lock season record: 0-0 Really like season record: 3-3 Also like season record: 18-23 If forced to choose season record: 17-26 Teaser season record: 0-1 All games season record: 38-52
1. Can we just ship New Orleans the NFC title right now? How can they be stopped? Their schedule has only 3-4 losable games. It’s hard to imagine them losing in the Dome, and they should get homefield advantage throughout the playoffs. Even injuries likely won’t be too much of a problem – they have only one indispensable player.
2. But wait…here comes Miami and their great coaches off a bye week in a classic Trap Game.
3. Washington is coming off five straight games against the dregs of the league. They won two and lost three. The rest of their schedule: Philadelphia, BYE, @Atlanta, Denver, @Dallas, @Philadelphia, New Orleans, @Oakland, NY Giants, Dallas, @San Diego. Will the Skins win five games this season? They will be favored 0-2 times the rest of the way.
4. Carolina has not thrown a touchdown pass to a wide receiver this season.
5. Tampa Bay is 2/7 on field goals this season.
6. I used to think Minnesota's offense was poorly designed, but not anymore.
7. On the other hand, Minnesota's defense springs a lot of leaks. The back end of their defense isn't doing much.
8. Kansas City vs Washington was a very, very bad football game.
9. Larry Johnson's longest run of the season is fifteen yards.
10. Detroit fans should pray they never see Drew Stanton in a regular season game again.
11. Donald Driver must lead the league in "spectacular catches" over the last five years.
12. Michael Lombardi of the National Football Post pointed out this telling stat – ranking yards per pass attempt by team:
23. BUFFALO 5.1 2-4 24. DETROIT 5.0 1-5 25. ST LOUIS 5.0 0-6 26. TENNESSEE 5.0 0-6 27 SAN FRAN 5.0 3-2 28. TAMPA BAY 4.9 0-6 29. CAROLINA 4.9 2-4 30. KANSAS CITY 4.6 1-5 31. OAKLAND 4.5 2-4 32. CLEVELAND 4.1 1-5
13. The most boring subplot of the season: Michael Vick. If ever there was a time to use Vick, it was Sunday in that offensive apocalypse against the Raiders.
14. Would this play ever have happened if Brian Dawkins still played for the Eagles?
15. The Reid/McNabb Eagles have always had dumbfoundingly bad offensive games like they had Sunday against Oakland, games in which they just cannot figure anything out during the game and can't find a play to win a game against a bad opponent. It's maddening. Remember that they had a few of these games last season (Cincinnati, Washington) and should have missed the playoffs because of them.
16. Donovan "I didn't know NFL games could end in a tie" McNabb tried to call a timeout against the Raiders while the Eagles had none, resulting in a delay of game penalty.
17. Basically nothing targeted at Jeremy Maclin Sunday was close to a completion.
18. Seriously, how bad is Tim Hightower? The Cards have to keep playing him because Beanie Wells fumbles and can't block.
19. The key difference between the Cardinals and Saints: Offensive tackles.
20. Gambling mistake of the week: Betting on a team starting a fourth-string left tackle. There has not been a poorer performance from an offensive line than Seattle's against Arizona.
21. Vince Young led the Titans with 0 passing yards. Kerry Collins had -7. Old men do not fare well in the snow.
22. I have come to despise LaDainian Tomlinson. I wish he would retire. Every week I think about flat-dropping his ass in fantasy. I hate watching him run. I hate the Chargers. My ten most hated players:
10. Marcedes Lewis 9. Kenneth Darby 8. Tim Hightower 7. Roy E. Williams 6. LaDainian Tomlinson 5. JaMarcus Russell 4. Marc Bulger 3. Brett Favre 2. Thomas Jones 1. Philip Rivers
23. Although Philip Rivers put up solid numbers against them (he puts up good numbers against everyone), you could see how effective Denver’s secondary is. You could see them making Rivers wait to throw the ball, allowing Dumervil & co. time to get to him. And you could really see how important Brian Dawkins is to that defense. The 36 year-old Dawkins is emerging as a Defensive MVP candidate.
24. Broncos owner Pat Bowlen comes off as a bit of a nincompoop in public appearances but he does seem to be one of the league’s better owners. Mike Shanahan had nothing but positive things to say after Bowlen let him go and Pat clearly found the right guy to replace Shanahan.
Defensive MVP of the week: David Harris, New York Jets Offensive MVP of the week: Drew Brees, New Orleans Defensive breakout player of the week: Jairus Byrd, Buffalo Offensive breakout player of the week: Hakeem Nicks, New York Giants Defensive coordinator of the week: Billy Davis, Arizona Offensive coordinator of the week: Pete Carmichael Jr., New Orleans Goat of the week: Mark Sanchez, New York Jets
Power Rankings:
Very Bad:
32. Cleveland (28) 31. Oakland (32) 30. Kansas City (27) 29. Tampa Bay (29) 28. Buffalo (30) 27. St. Louis (31) 26. Washington (26) 25. Tennessee (24)
Bad:
24. Carolina (25) 23. Detroit (23) 22. Jacksonville (22)
Not sure yet:
21. Seattle (19) 20. San Diego (16) 19. Houston (21) 18. New York Jets (11) 17. Arizona (20) 16. San Francisco (17) 15. Dallas (13) 14. Miami (18)
Good:
13. Green Bay (15) 12. Chicago (14) 11. Cincinnati (12) 10. Philadelphia (6) 9. Atlanta (10)
Very Good:
8. Baltimore (8) 7. Denver (9) 6. New England (7) 5. Minnesota (4) 4. Pittsburgh (5) 3. New York Giants (1) 2. New Orleans (3) 1. Indianapolis (2)
1. I am going to Chicago Thursday to play the WSOP Circuit Hammond 5k event. I pessimistically bought a Saturday flight out although the tournament starts Friday and ends Sunday. I won't have much down time in Chi-Town though I have several friends there and adore the place. This will likely be my only poker tournament of the Fall. There's a good chance the next one will be the PCA in Bahamas in January.
2. Softball season is over. Sigh.
3. You may have noticed the 777 banner to the left. I have received overtures from advertisers for awhile now but never felt the money was worth defiling the blog. I finally decided putting up the ad and giving the money to charity was the most utilitarian option.
4. You may have also noticed how terrible I am at picking NFL games, even though I "work" harder at this than any "job" I've ever had. Battle plan: relax, step back, calm down, have fun, go Broncos.
5. I have a puppy. This is worthy of its own post, coming soon.
6. This one goes quite a ways back...I really enjoy auctions. Going to an auction is a guaranteed good time even if you don't wind up with anything.
7. Congratulations to Mr. and Mrs. Greenberg on a flawless, joyous wedding. This one is worthy of its own post too. You've changed my life. You are my inspiration.
8. I've been watching Friday Night Lights first season - and loving it.
9. My Survivor fantasy team is Monica, Mick, and Laura.
