Week Eight Observations

1. Jairus Byrd has intercepted two balls in three straight games! The Defensive Rookie of the Year race appears to be over – though Brian Cushing put in a fabulous effort in the same game. Byrd is now tied for the NFL lead in INTs with Darren Sharper.

2. Cleveland’s offense is so talentless defenses are double-teaming Mohamed Massaquoi, who would never see the field for most teams. Cleveland’s offense in its current iteration could be the worst I’ve ever seen.

3. Devin Hester showed signs of life returning punts against the Browns. He will never get back to the level he was at two years ago but maybe he can be average.

4. Steven Jackon carried St. Louis to that win in Detroit by himself. Jackson seems like the kind of guy that couldn’t stand to have the blood of a winless season on his hands.

5. Daniel Fells of the Rams has three receiving touchdowns this season. QB Marc Bulger has thrown three TDs all year. #1 WR Donnie Avery has two receiving, and Steven Jackson has one total.

6. The Lions need Calvin Johnson like the Rams need Jackson. 4.9 yards per pass and 3.8 yards per rush coming off a bye against the Rams at home is not going to cut it. Their receivers vs the Rams:
Bryant Johnson – two catches on eight targets
Dennis Northcutt – zero catches on five targets
Derrick Williams – zero catches on one target

7. Bad day for the McGenius. Bad matchup. Bad game plan. Bad adjustments. Bad luck. Bad playcalling. The mystique is gone. McDaniels is still the leading contender for Coach of the Year but he’s not perfect.

8. The Denver Broncos have the best defense in the NFL.

9. I thought Brandon Jacobs looked better against the Eagles. Ahmad Bradshaw and his broken foot, not so much.

10. *** Guest Observation of the Week ***
Our first guest observation comes from Pickett, who took issue with my lambasting of Andy Reid’s play selection. Pickett’s observation:

Andy Reid is not a nut trying to make his quota. According to The Blind Side by Michael Lewis, in the NFL in the 1960s, a pass was twice as likely to be intercepted as a run was to result in a fumble (6% and 3% respectively). But “by 1995, a quarterback was no more likely to be intercepted than a runner was to fumble the ball,” about a 3% chance of either (p. 115). So far this season (according to ESPN.com) fumbles have been more prevalent, occuring 4.02% of the time (255 fumbles forced over 6342 rushing attempts) whereas interceptions have occurred only 2.90% of the time (221 interceptions this season over 7628 passing attempts). But people still consider running the ball to be the safer option which, considering these statistics is an outdated opinion. Certainly the run game is an important component of an offense, but when you consider that the average pass results in more yardage gained than the average run, and the odds of a fumble/interception are virtually the same, it seems far more critical to have a strong passing game than a running game.

11. Seattle can't tackle.

12. Good thing the Colts signed Matt Stover. Funny that Stover didn’t have a job while Jason Elam, Matt Prater, and Mike Nugent did.

13. Here’s what an off-day for Peyton Manning looks like on paper: 31/48 for 347 yards, 0 TD, 0 INT. It wasn’t enough for the Colts to lose, but it might have been enough for Drew Brees to regain the lead in what’s shaping up to be a tight MVP race.

14. Surprisingly, it is Aaron Rodgers, not Manning or Brees, who leads the NFL in quarterback rating. Rodgers also has 188 rush yards on the season.

15. The offensive Rookie of the Year race is also likely over. Ship it to Percy Harvin.

16. What is it with linebackers named Spencer learning to play offense? The Broncos have one in Larsen and the Packers now have their Havner.

17. The Panthers upset the Cardinals with last year’s successful formula – a badass running game, big plays to Steve Smith, and solid defense. This is not last year’s Carolina team though, and there is no reason to expect them to get back to that level. Even with a 50-yard Steve Smith TD catch, the Panthers still threw for just 90 yards.

18. Two years in a row, Arizona is the highest-variance team in the NFL. There isn’t much difference between the ’08 and ’09 Cardinals.

19. San Diego is 2-5 against the spread this season. They were poor last season as well. They are good in two of the game’s six major facets (pass offense, special teams) and terrible in the other four (rush offense, rush defense, pass defense, coaching). I will pick against them every step of the way.

20. Maurice Jones Drew’s first direct involvement in a play came with 8:11 left in the second quarter…when he tackled Rod Hood after a David Garrard interception. MJD’s first touch was an 80 yard touchdown run.

21. Miami beat the Jets averaging 2.3 yards per rush and 2.4 yards per pass.

22. Not sure why Michael Turner suddenly looked powerful and explosive this week after such an uninspiring first six games. That performance vaulted him up these running back rankings, though he barely makes it into the top half. Running back is the easiest position for me to evaluate watching the games, so here is my attempt to rank every relevant RB considering all attributes:

1. Adrian Peterson
2. Steven Jackson
3. Maurice Jones-Drew
4. DeAngelo Williams
5. Chris Johnson
6. Frank Gore
7. Ronnie Brown
8. Brian Westbrook
9. Ahmad Bradshaw
10. Ricky Williams
11. Jonathan Stewart
12. Brandon Jacobs
13. Ray Rice
14. Marion Barber
15. Felix Jones
16. Fred Jackson
17. Matt Forte
18. Thomas Jones
19. Cedric Benson
20. Steve Slaton
21. Marshawn Lynch
22. Cadillac Williams
23. Pierre Thomas
24. Kevin Smith
25. Darren McFadden
26. Tashard Choice
27. Chester Taylor
28. Derrick Ward
29. Rashard Mendenhall
30. Willis McGahee
31. Darren Sproles
32. Correll Buckhalter
33. Michael Bush
34. Michael Turner
35. Justin Fargas
36. Mike Bell
37. Jerious Norwood
38. Kevin Faulk
39. Beanie Wells
40. Lendale White
41. Mewelde Moore
42. Ryan Grant
43. Knowshon Moreno
44. Sammy Morris
45. Donald Brown
46. Jamaal Charles
47. Shonn Greene
48. Jerome Harrison
49. Willie Parker
50. LeSean McCoy
51. Glen Coffee
52. Joseph Addai
53. Larry Johnson
54. Julius Jones
55. Clinton Portis
56. Reggie Bush
57. Justin Forsett
58. Laurence Maroney
59. The “Other” Adrian Peterson
60. Ladell Betts
61. Tim Hightower
62. Brandon Jackson
63. LaDainian Tomlinson
64. Garrett Wolfe
65. Jamal Lewis
66. Aaron Brown
67. Edgerrin James
68. Kenneth Darby

23. Matt Ryan is overrated. It bothers me. He is the weak link of that offense – though Sam Baker is not playing like a first round pick at left tackle. Ryan does not make plays. He runs the play that Mike Mularkey sends in, and usually delivers the ball accurately if everything is executed properly. But if anything breaks down, if there is a protection issue, if the primary receiver is covered, if the defense surprises him with an unexpected look, Ryan, right now, is not a player that can make a play for the Falcons.

24. The Monday Night game was the most exciting game of the year…if you had a bet on Falcons +10.5.

Goat of the Week: Dirk Koetter, Jacksonville Offensive Coordinator
Defensive Breakout Player of the Week: Brent Grimes, Atlanta
Offensive Breakout Player of the Week: Ryan Moats, Houston
Defensive MVP of the Week: Brian Cushing, Houston
Offensive MVP of the Week: Chris Johnson, Tennessee
Defensive Coordinator of the Week: Mike Pettine, New York Jets
Offensive Coordinator of the Week: Jeff Davidson, Carolina

Power Rankings:

32. Cleveland (32)
31. Oakland (31)
30. Kansas City (30)
29. Tampa Bay (29)
28. St. Louis (28)
27. Detroit (23)
26. Buffalo (27)
25. Washington (26)
24. Jacksonville (22)
23. Tennessee (25)
22. Carolina (24)
21. Seattle (21)
20. Chicago (16)
19. San Diego (20)
18. San Francisco (19)
17. Houston (18)
16. New York Jets (17)
15. Miami (15)
14. Atlanta (14)
13. Arizona (12)
12. Green Bay (10)
11. Dallas (13)
10. Philadelphia (11)
9. Denver (7)
8. Cincinnati (9)
7. New York Giants (5)
6. Baltimore (8)
5. New England (6)
4. Minnesota (4)
3. Pittsburgh (3)
2. Indianapolis (1)
1. New Orleans (2)