Week Ten Picks

Lock:
Ravens -10.5 over BROWNS

Really like:
Eagles +1 over CHARGERS
Broncos -3.5 over REDSKINS
Falcons -1.5 over PANTHERS

Also like:
JETS -6.5 over Jaguars
Saints -13.5 over RAMS
DOLPHINS -10 over Bucs
Chiefs +2 over RAIDERS

If forced to choose:
CARDINALS -8.5 over Seahawks
COLTS -2.5 over Patriots
TITANS -8.5 over Bills
Cowboys -3 over PACKERS
Lions +16.5 over VIKINGS
Bears +3.5 over NINERS X
Bengals +7 over STEELERS

Three Team Teaser of the Week:
Ravens -.5 over BROWNS plus DOLPHINS over Bucs plus Lions +26.5 over VIKINGS

Lock season record: 0-0
Really like season record: 3-5
Also like season record: 26-29
If forced to choose season record: 29-36-1
Teaser season record: 1-3
All games season record: 58-70-1

Week Nine Observations

1. Miami pulled every rabbit they had out of the hat in an effort to make plays against New England. It wasn't enough. The Patriots were too good. But you have to give the Dolphin coaches credit for trying. From a talent standpoint, Miami bears some resemblance to the Cleveland Browns.

2. Atlanta's Eric Weems is one of the best return men in the game right now.

3. I really don't know how or why Michael Turner got back to his '08 form. This sort of rare midseason renaissance makes me think he may have been nursing a secret injury the first half of the season and is now healthy.

4. Atlanta has a nice package of plays they can run for Jerious Norwood when he returns from injury. These plays don't look so hot going to Aaron Stecker, but they will give Norwood a chance to showcase his athleticism.

5. It's Jonathan Babineaux, not John Abraham, who is having the most impact rushing the passer for the Falcons. Abraham, arguably the most effective pure pass rusher in the league last season, has entered the witness protection program.

6. Everyone likes to call out Green Bay's offensive line as the worst in the league, but Washington's is worse.

7. Not sure what happened to LaRon Landry, who was supposed to be an All-Pro at this point.

8. The Redskins played one of the dumbest games I've seen in a while Sunday in Atlanta. This game should have come with a bow and wrapping paper.

9. I believe the Bears would be one of the worst teams in the league if their quarterback was Kyle Orton instead of Jay Cutler.

10. The Colts cannot get a yard when they need it. They look a little like the '08 Saints only with a better defense.

11. Houston was called for a ridiculous number of offsides penalties Sunday against the Colts. Nobody can really have an excuse for that. It just went on and on the whole game and was never corrected.

12. The rookie years of Matthew Stafford, Mark Sanchez, and, soon enough, Josh Freeman are proving just how fluky last year’s campaigns from Matt Ryan and Joe Flacco were and just how brilliant their offensive coaches are. Freeman played as well as any Tampa quarterback has this season. Here are my rankings of the league’s relevant quarterbacks based on all factors at this moment:

1. Peyton Manning
2. Drew Brees
3. Philip Rivers
4. Kurt Warner
5. Aaron Rodgers
6. Brett Favre
7. Ben Roethlisberger
8. Tom Brady
9. Tony Romo
10. Carson Palmer
11. Donovan McNabb
12. Jay Cutler
13. David Garrard
14. Eli Manning
14. Joe Flacco
15. Matt Hasselbeck
16. Matt Schaub
17. Matt Ryan
18. Matt Cassel
19. Kyle Orton
20. Tarvaris Jackson
21. Jason Campbell
22. Vince Young
23. Kerry Collins
24. Jake Delhomme
25. Mark Sanchez
26. Seneca Wallace
27. Matthew Stafford
28. Alex Smith
29. Shaun Hill
30. Chad Henne
31. Byron Leftwich
32. Marc Bulger
33. Josh Johnson
34. Trent Edwards
35. Kyle Boller
36. Josh Freeman
37. Daunte Culpepper
38. Ryan Fitzpatrick
39. Derek Anderson
40. Brady Quinn
41. JaMarcus Russell

13. Drew Brees finally got burned throwing one of those no-look passes to Marques Colston when Chris Gamble picked him off.

14. In third and long, it is customary for the Panthers to run the ball. They might as well. Steve Smith is triple teamed and they don’t have anyone other than DeAngelo Williams with any speed.

15. What if the Panthers had made a play for Brandon Marshall in August?? Carolina would be a totally different team with his services. If the Broncos don't lock Marshall up this season, the Panthers might have to throw a lot of cash at him.

16. Oh wait. Carolina has no money. Or draft picks. Whoops.

17. Punter Andy Lee of the Niners could be the best right now.

18. Colleague Jeff Feagles is done.

19. Coming into the season it appeared the Giants would have the best defensive line in the league, but they have been just another unit.

20. So we were watching the Eagles/Cowboys game on DVR, and the first program ran out and paused at its end right as LeSean McCoy caught a screen pass. The frozen frame showed a perfectly designed and executed play, with all the Dallas defenders blocked and a nice juicy lane set up for McCoy. We were sure it was going for a big gain.

Then we boot up the second program and watch McCoy juke three ghosts, dance like me at a wedding, kick it outside, and pick up the minimum. McCoy is a big dropoff from Brian Westbrook.

21. Philadelphia could have won that game, and there are many reasons why they lost, but Dallas WON it because when they had to get a first down they could, and the Eagles couldn’t.

22. Champ Bailey may have had the worst game of his career against the Steelers.

23. The Denver Broncos are a pretty easy team to figure out this season. They have the best defense in the league (though Pittsburgh’s is coming on now that Troy Polamalu is back) and they run a low-risk, low-variance ball control offensive attack. What they cannot do is throw the ball down the field. Consecutive bad losses to the Ravens and Steelers were due to matchups and shouldn’t be construed as a sign the team is falling apart. The 6-0 start got a lot of people comparing the Broncos to classic New England teams of the past decade, when in fact the team is closer to the ’08 Dolphins or even ’09 Niners. They should take care of business against a bad Redskins team this weekend.

Goat of the Week: Tommie Harris, Chicago
Defensive Breakout Player of the Week: Vontae Davis, Miami
Offensive Breakout Player of the Week: Josh Freeman, Tampa Bay
Defensive Coordinator of the Week: Mike Zimmer, Cincinnati
Offensive Coordinator of the Week: Mike Heimerdinger, Tennessee
Defensive MVP of the Week: David Hawthorne, Seattle
Offensive MVP of the Week: Chris Johnson, Tennessee

Power Rankings:

32. Cleveland (32)
31. Oakland (31)
30. Kansas City (30)
29. Detroit (27)
28. St. Louis (28)
27. Tampa Bay (29)
26. Buffalo (26)
25. Washington (25)
24. Jacksonville (24)
23. Seattle (21)
22. Chicago (20)
21. Carolina (22)
20. Tennessee (23)
19. San Francisco (18)
18. San Diego (19)
17. New York Jets (16)
16. Miami (15)
15. Houston (17)
14. Atlanta (14)
13. Green Bay (12)
12. New York Giants (7)
11. Arizona (13)
10. Philadelphia (10)
9. Denver (9)
8. Dallas (11)
7. Baltimore (6)
6. Cincinnati (8)
5. New England (5)
4. Minnesota (4)
3. Indianapolis (2)
2. Pittsburgh (3)
1. New Orleans (1)

A Big Week of Gambling

My poker game is very strong right now as the FTOPS rolls into week two. There are two events I am really looking forward to, the Bankroll Breaker Wednesday night and the $2500 two-day tournament on Saturday. The 'Breaker has been the most losing online tournament I have played while the two-day has been my most profitable.

Several recent events have gotten me fired up to play:

1. I went to Indiana and played mistake-free poker. There have been very few tournaments I walked away from 100% satisfied with every decision I made, and this was one. I thought I might be rusty but instead came out hungry, focused, and passionate.
   
2. The WSOP final table. As I write this two players are still playing for the title. Guys made mistakes. It happens every year - I see major mistakes that I would never make and know I play better than most of the players at the final table.
3. I followed the latter stages of the Foxwoods WPT. Again, mistakes. I am really thinking about getting back out there and playing a healthier diet of big buy-in tournaments. I know I have a large edge in most of them. Congrats to Matt Stout on making the final table up there.
   
4. TheGraveWolf has been playing excellent tournament poker. His excitement for tournament poker has been inspiring.
5. I final-tabled the FTOPS Shootout last week which gave some credence to all this.
   

On the NFL front, Sunday will probably be our biggest betting day of the year and will likely include the first Moon "Lock" of the season.

Week Nine Picks

Also like:
Packers -9.5 over BUCS
GIANTS -4.5 over Chargers
Cardinals +2.5 over BEARS
EAGLES -3 over Cowboys
Steelers -2.5 over BRONCOS
FALCONS -9 over Redskins
Texans +9 over COLTS

If forced to choose:
NINERS -4 over Titans
Dolphins +10.5 over PATRIOTS
SAINTS -13 over Panthers
Ravens -2.5 over BENGALS
SEAHAWKS -10 over Lions
JAGUARS -6.5 over Chiefs

Three Team Teaser of the Week: Texans +19 plus Steelers +7.5 plus EAGLES +7

Lock season record: 0-0
Really like season record: 3-5
Also like season record: 22-26
If forced to choose season record: 27-32-1
Teaser season record: 0-3
All games season record: 52-63-1

Week Eight Observations

1. Jairus Byrd has intercepted two balls in three straight games! The Defensive Rookie of the Year race appears to be over – though Brian Cushing put in a fabulous effort in the same game. Byrd is now tied for the NFL lead in INTs with Darren Sharper.

2. Cleveland’s offense is so talentless defenses are double-teaming Mohamed Massaquoi, who would never see the field for most teams. Cleveland’s offense in its current iteration could be the worst I’ve ever seen.

3. Devin Hester showed signs of life returning punts against the Browns. He will never get back to the level he was at two years ago but maybe he can be average.

4. Steven Jackon carried St. Louis to that win in Detroit by himself. Jackson seems like the kind of guy that couldn’t stand to have the blood of a winless season on his hands.

5. Daniel Fells of the Rams has three receiving touchdowns this season. QB Marc Bulger has thrown three TDs all year. #1 WR Donnie Avery has two receiving, and Steven Jackson has one total.

6. The Lions need Calvin Johnson like the Rams need Jackson. 4.9 yards per pass and 3.8 yards per rush coming off a bye against the Rams at home is not going to cut it. Their receivers vs the Rams:
Bryant Johnson – two catches on eight targets
Dennis Northcutt – zero catches on five targets
Derrick Williams – zero catches on one target

7. Bad day for the McGenius. Bad matchup. Bad game plan. Bad adjustments. Bad luck. Bad playcalling. The mystique is gone. McDaniels is still the leading contender for Coach of the Year but he’s not perfect.

8. The Denver Broncos have the best defense in the NFL.

9. I thought Brandon Jacobs looked better against the Eagles. Ahmad Bradshaw and his broken foot, not so much.

10. *** Guest Observation of the Week ***
Our first guest observation comes from Pickett, who took issue with my lambasting of Andy Reid’s play selection. Pickett’s observation:

Andy Reid is not a nut trying to make his quota. According to The Blind Side by Michael Lewis, in the NFL in the 1960s, a pass was twice as likely to be intercepted as a run was to result in a fumble (6% and 3% respectively). But “by 1995, a quarterback was no more likely to be intercepted than a runner was to fumble the ball,” about a 3% chance of either (p. 115). So far this season (according to ESPN.com) fumbles have been more prevalent, occuring 4.02% of the time (255 fumbles forced over 6342 rushing attempts) whereas interceptions have occurred only 2.90% of the time (221 interceptions this season over 7628 passing attempts). But people still consider running the ball to be the safer option which, considering these statistics is an outdated opinion. Certainly the run game is an important component of an offense, but when you consider that the average pass results in more yardage gained than the average run, and the odds of a fumble/interception are virtually the same, it seems far more critical to have a strong passing game than a running game.

11. Seattle can't tackle.

12. Good thing the Colts signed Matt Stover. Funny that Stover didn’t have a job while Jason Elam, Matt Prater, and Mike Nugent did.

13. Here’s what an off-day for Peyton Manning looks like on paper: 31/48 for 347 yards, 0 TD, 0 INT. It wasn’t enough for the Colts to lose, but it might have been enough for Drew Brees to regain the lead in what’s shaping up to be a tight MVP race.

14. Surprisingly, it is Aaron Rodgers, not Manning or Brees, who leads the NFL in quarterback rating. Rodgers also has 188 rush yards on the season.

15. The offensive Rookie of the Year race is also likely over. Ship it to Percy Harvin.

16. What is it with linebackers named Spencer learning to play offense? The Broncos have one in Larsen and the Packers now have their Havner.

17. The Panthers upset the Cardinals with last year’s successful formula – a badass running game, big plays to Steve Smith, and solid defense. This is not last year’s Carolina team though, and there is no reason to expect them to get back to that level. Even with a 50-yard Steve Smith TD catch, the Panthers still threw for just 90 yards.

18. Two years in a row, Arizona is the highest-variance team in the NFL. There isn’t much difference between the ’08 and ’09 Cardinals.

19. San Diego is 2-5 against the spread this season. They were poor last season as well. They are good in two of the game’s six major facets (pass offense, special teams) and terrible in the other four (rush offense, rush defense, pass defense, coaching). I will pick against them every step of the way.

20. Maurice Jones Drew’s first direct involvement in a play came with 8:11 left in the second quarter…when he tackled Rod Hood after a David Garrard interception. MJD’s first touch was an 80 yard touchdown run.

21. Miami beat the Jets averaging 2.3 yards per rush and 2.4 yards per pass.

22. Not sure why Michael Turner suddenly looked powerful and explosive this week after such an uninspiring first six games. That performance vaulted him up these running back rankings, though he barely makes it into the top half. Running back is the easiest position for me to evaluate watching the games, so here is my attempt to rank every relevant RB considering all attributes:

1. Adrian Peterson
2. Steven Jackson
3. Maurice Jones-Drew
4. DeAngelo Williams
5. Chris Johnson
6. Frank Gore
7. Ronnie Brown
8. Brian Westbrook
9. Ahmad Bradshaw
10. Ricky Williams
11. Jonathan Stewart
12. Brandon Jacobs
13. Ray Rice
14. Marion Barber
15. Felix Jones
16. Fred Jackson
17. Matt Forte
18. Thomas Jones
19. Cedric Benson
20. Steve Slaton
21. Marshawn Lynch
22. Cadillac Williams
23. Pierre Thomas
24. Kevin Smith
25. Darren McFadden
26. Tashard Choice
27. Chester Taylor
28. Derrick Ward
29. Rashard Mendenhall
30. Willis McGahee
31. Darren Sproles
32. Correll Buckhalter
33. Michael Bush
34. Michael Turner
35. Justin Fargas
36. Mike Bell
37. Jerious Norwood
38. Kevin Faulk
39. Beanie Wells
40. Lendale White
41. Mewelde Moore
42. Ryan Grant
43. Knowshon Moreno
44. Sammy Morris
45. Donald Brown
46. Jamaal Charles
47. Shonn Greene
48. Jerome Harrison
49. Willie Parker
50. LeSean McCoy
51. Glen Coffee
52. Joseph Addai
53. Larry Johnson
54. Julius Jones
55. Clinton Portis
56. Reggie Bush
57. Justin Forsett
58. Laurence Maroney
59. The “Other” Adrian Peterson
60. Ladell Betts
61. Tim Hightower
62. Brandon Jackson
63. LaDainian Tomlinson
64. Garrett Wolfe
65. Jamal Lewis
66. Aaron Brown
67. Edgerrin James
68. Kenneth Darby

23. Matt Ryan is overrated. It bothers me. He is the weak link of that offense – though Sam Baker is not playing like a first round pick at left tackle. Ryan does not make plays. He runs the play that Mike Mularkey sends in, and usually delivers the ball accurately if everything is executed properly. But if anything breaks down, if there is a protection issue, if the primary receiver is covered, if the defense surprises him with an unexpected look, Ryan, right now, is not a player that can make a play for the Falcons.

24. The Monday Night game was the most exciting game of the year…if you had a bet on Falcons +10.5.

Goat of the Week: Dirk Koetter, Jacksonville Offensive Coordinator
Defensive Breakout Player of the Week: Brent Grimes, Atlanta
Offensive Breakout Player of the Week: Ryan Moats, Houston
Defensive MVP of the Week: Brian Cushing, Houston
Offensive MVP of the Week: Chris Johnson, Tennessee
Defensive Coordinator of the Week: Mike Pettine, New York Jets
Offensive Coordinator of the Week: Jeff Davidson, Carolina

Power Rankings:

32. Cleveland (32)
31. Oakland (31)
30. Kansas City (30)
29. Tampa Bay (29)
28. St. Louis (28)
27. Detroit (23)
26. Buffalo (27)
25. Washington (26)
24. Jacksonville (22)
23. Tennessee (25)
22. Carolina (24)
21. Seattle (21)
20. Chicago (16)
19. San Diego (20)
18. San Francisco (19)
17. Houston (18)
16. New York Jets (17)
15. Miami (15)
14. Atlanta (14)
13. Arizona (12)
12. Green Bay (10)
11. Dallas (13)
10. Philadelphia (11)
9. Denver (7)
8. Cincinnati (9)
7. New York Giants (5)
6. Baltimore (8)
5. New England (6)
4. Minnesota (4)
3. Pittsburgh (3)
2. Indianapolis (1)
1. New Orleans (2)

Digging Out

“You are as young as your faith, as old as your doubt; as young as your self-confidence, as old as your fear; as young as your hope, as old as your despair.”
- Douglas MacArthur
___

It snowed for fifty straight hours last week in Boulder, dumping about two feet of snow. The ferocity and duration of the storm did not behoove October, but in Boulder, nothing that comes out of the sky is a surprise. I had a conversation with a friend a week ago about how Boulder has the best weather because it is so fleeting and heterogeneous. Nobody really wants to live in sunshine all the time. You see it all here, and you might see it all within the same day.

The glorious plateau has come and gone, and I am back to the uphill grind. Living alone and gambling for a living is not for the faint of heart. Just when you think you might be starting to figure things out, it snows again. Last year we started seriously betting NFL games, and the gambling went as smoothly as could be expected. I had designs on relying on football season for a significant portion of my income, hopes that each Fall would come with an assurance of pleasure and profit.

This season the pillars we depended upon in ’08 have crumbled and we find ourselves in the red. I still believe, unlike many, that the NFL can be beaten, but there certainly isn’t any measure of reliability this season or in the future.

The single life is as fickle as the Boulder weather. Ecstatic bliss, utter despair, fresh hope, crushing devastation, amiable assurance and nerve-racking anxiety can all be experienced within the same day. This all used to be so relentlessly traumatic for me. It will always stress me out – just as it will always afford some measure of excitement – but hopefully without those dire moments of hopelessness. You see enough snowstorms, you know that in time they will all melt away.

October Top 15

15. Alice in Chains - Check My Brain
14. Augustana - Sweet and Low
13. The Avett Brothers - Tear Down the House
12. Augustana - Hey Now
11. Ryan Adams & The Cardinals - Blossom

10. George Michael - Faith
9. Edwyn Collins - A Girl Like You
8. The Avett Brothers - Backwards With Time
7. The Avett Brothers - When I Drink
6. Ryan Adams & The Cardinals - Mockingbird

5. Big Country - In a Big Country
4. Death Cab For Cutie - I Will Possess Your Heart
3. Cake - Short Skirt/Long Jacket
2. Ryan Adams & The Cardinals - Cold Roses

Song of the Month: Ryan Adams & The Cardinals - If I Am A Stranger